Summary
Youtube metrics for the official candidate channels show that Trump completely overwhelms Biden. We see similar trends when looking at other alt data sources, namely that Trump’s supporters are far more enthusiastic. In a normal election, this would equate to Trump having a significant electoral advantage.
In the context of the 2020 election, we are seeing strong Trump alt data and strong Biden poll data. This is the unsung battle of 2020 and one of its most fascinating. We will continue to explore this rather unusual phenomenon in other posts while focusing here on youtube.
Youtube
Both candidates have dedicated youtube channels where videos are uploaded. Metrics by video, such as views, likes, dislikes, and comments, are publically available and presented in summarized form in Table 1.
Table 1: Youtube Statistics for Donald J Trump and Joe Biden Channels, Data from July to September 14, 2020
|
Trump |
Biden |
Biden / Total |
|
|
Views |
205,202,834 | 43,922,385 |
18% |
|
Likes |
2,280,366 | 375,489 |
14% |
|
Dislikes |
822,867 | 206,425 |
20% |
|
Comments |
776,360 | 28,930 |
4% |
|
Likes per 1,000 Views |
256 |
42 |
|
|
Dislikes per 1,000 Views |
92 |
23 |
|
|
Comments per 1,000 Views |
87 |
3 |
|
|
Likes / Dislikes |
2.8 |
1.8 |
Source: Youtube, ZettaCap
Trump’s data is clearly stronger by a wide margin.
He has more views, likes per view, comments per view, and likes per dislike.
Additionally, Trump’s metrics overwhelm those of Biden. In other words, his metrics are not just better but significantly better. For instance, Biden’s number of views is less than a fifth of Trump’s, as are his likes. In a normal election cycle, these metrics would imply a Trump landslide.
We should mention that most of the videos on Biden’s channel have comments turned off. The ones that offer comments produce few.
The combination of significantly lower views, a worse like/dislike ratio, and almost non-existent comments depicts Biden’s campaign as having generated little enthusiasm or support.
1st Two Weeks of September
Looking at short-term youtube data shows the same broad picture. One attractive point for Biden’s channel is that it almost posted the same number of views in the 1st two weeks of September. However, offsetting this improvement in raw traffic is the fact that the other metrics remain at extremely low relative levels. For instance, we can see how likes, dislikes and comments compare in the following chart.
Chart 1: Youtube Likes, Dislikes, and Comments, for the Official Trump and Biden Channels, during First Two Weeks of September, 2020
Source: Youtube, ZettaCap
Graphically, we can see just how overwhelming Trump’s advantage really is. Note that Biden has higher dislikes, which is odd considering his meager likes.
Looking Forward
Another point that is worth noting is that Biden tends to do better with traditional campaign videos, professionally done videos that often use voice-overs and slow motion dramatic scenes. These videos garnered significant traction for Biden in the last two weeks, especially those that discussed his personal family tragedies. His live events tend to attract far less traction.
Trump’s channel puts up more recorded live videos from campaign events. Metrics on these tend to be much better than those for Biden.
Looking forward, we expect live campaign type events including debate-themed videos to start to dominate. We also expect the more traditional political campaign add videos to decrease in relevance as more live videos (such as those based on the presidential debates) become available.
In short, given recent trends, we expect Trump to benefit over the coming months as his metrics tend to be better with live campaign event style videos.
Alt Data vs Polls
The great conundrum of 2020 is the divergence between polls and alt data.
Sources such as youtube clearly show Trump as being the candidate with greater support and more enthusiastic followers. On the other hand, Biden is clearly the lead candidate when looking at national and swing state polls. We will continue to explore this divergence in other posts.