Summary
In many ways, the 8th Democratic debate was similar to the 7th — Bernie Sanders won, Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg had respectable showings, and Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren performed poorly.
The big winner of the 8th Democratic debate was Bernie Sanders. Social Media Influence (SMI), our main election forecasting tool, put him at the top, as did the on-line post-debate surveys of who won the debate, as highlighted in Table 1. Furthermore, Sanders came out near the top according to Google Trends. Across various metrics, Sanders is the winner on the night and the Democratic front-runner.
Amy Klobuchar was the largest positive surprise, as she was in the 6th and 7th debates as well. Her second place SMI finish matched her performances in the two previous debates. Klobuchar’s late surge reflects the apparent search by moderate Democrats for a moderate standard-bearer in the case that Biden implodes.
Biden and Warren continue their pattern of poor debate performances. SMI placed them at the bottom of the field, together with Tom Steyer, and their broader debate metrics in general look weak. We have noted similar observations for these two candidates after previous debates. Their under-performances according to our metrics have been in direct contrast to polls, betting markets, and pundits that have placed them at or near the top of the field for much of 2019 and 2020.
We continue to see Sanders as the current Democratic front-runner. His strong 8th debate performance simply confirms our outlook.
We also continue to see the race as up in the air as there are still plenty of surprises that could change the outcome. As mentioned in previous posts, we expect high-profile non-candidate moderate Democrats to make a move prior to Super Tuesday (March 3rd) with enough force to potentially shift the outcome of the race.
On a side note, Mike Bloomberg continues to surge, even though he did not participate in Iowa or the 8th Democratic debate and is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. Bloomberg, in a similar way to Buttigieg and Klobuchar, has benefited as moderate Democrats and centrists search for a non-Biden favorite. His SMI currently places him in second place behind Sanders.
The Data
There are three different types of data in Table 1 (below).
SMI uses social media data to measure on-line influence of the candidates during the debate.
The next two entries, Heavy and NJ.com, are on-line surveys asking who won the debate, with data taken the day following the debate.
The last two data points refer to Google Search popularity during the debate and during a peak period from the day following the debate (to see how trends might have shifted post-debate when people search to find out more about a candidate).
It is important to state that SMI’s rankings are completely independent of the other forms of analysis — and that SMI provides similar yet unique insights.
Additionally, we should highlight that SMI made early and correct forecasts for the 2016 US Election, 2017 French Election, and 2018 Brazil Election – all considered extremely difficult elections to correctly forecast.
Comparative Rankings
The following table lays out the ranked finish of each of the seven candidates participating in the debate according to a variety of methods.
Table 1: Ranking by Candidate’s Debate Performance by a Variety of Methods
| Debate SMI | Heavy.com (Survey) | NJ.com (Survey) | Google Search, during debate | Google Search, next day | Avg. | |
| Bernie Sanders | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.4 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3.0 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2.4 |
| Andrew Yang | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3.8 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6.0 |
| Joe Biden | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4.8 |
| Tom Steyer | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6.6 |
Source: ZettaCap, Heavy.com, NJ.com, Google Trends
According to SMI, Bernie Sanders has won the last two Democratic debates.
Interestingly, he has also won each of the on-line post-debate surveys for the last two debates as well. Search places him slightly lower, but still attractive.
In previous posts, we highlighted Sanders’ surge which began at his October rally in which Sanders received endorsements from a variety of progressives and Democratic Socialists, including the first-term congresswoman AOC. This wave has simply continued and is now has the potential to take over the Democratic Party.
Amy Klobuchar has finished just behind Sanders in SMI in the last two debates, far exceeding consensus expectations. As we have pointed out in previous posts, Klobuchar has attained a decent amount of momentum and it seems that moderate Democrats have been giving her a more serious look. Post-debate on-line surveys also show Klobuchar performing well in the 8th debate.
Pete Buttigieg has received a tremendous amount of media coverage in the last few weeks given his upset victory in Iowa. And, Google search trends highlight the fact that he appears in many more searches. However, his debate performance is somewhat disappointing.
According to SMI, Buttigieg placed third at the debate, while his average post-debate on-line survey ratings puts him in fourth. Such mixed ratings, even though around the middle of the spectrum in general, do not reflect that positively on Buttigieg. After an upset win in Iowa, this could have been his breakout debate performance — according to our data, it was not.
Andrew Yang was more muted in this debate. In previous debates, his metrics were impressively strong, showing the intense interest in his message. For instance, we often highlighted Yang as winning previous debates thanks to SMI surges and on-line survey victories. In the 8th debate, Yang performed around the middle of the pack. Though impossible to say looking at our data, it seems as though having not qualified for the 7th debate made his candidacy appear too risky for many.
The real debate disappointments continue to be Biden and Warren, at least according to our data.
Though these trends are in flux, they both are still strong in national polls with Biden still in the lead and Warren in third. Such high caliber, at least according to polls, candidates performing poorly in debates should be worrisome for Democrats.
According to our data, Biden and Warren have finished in the bottom half of candidates during the last three debates.
The gaping divergence between poor alternative data performance and strong poll performance has produced our negative forecasts for each of these candidates. Their collectively poor 8th debate is just further confirmation that their prospects look dim.
SMI’s Convergence with Betting Markets
Rarely do the ratings of SMI and betting markets begin to converge while there are so many candidates left in the race and/or while the field is still so volatile.
At present, there appears to be a general convergence, as represented in Table 2.
Table 2: Rank of Democratic Candidates by SMI and Prediction Market Probabilities
| Rank | SMI or Social Media Influence | Betting or Prediction Market |
| 1 | Bernie Sanders | Bernie Sanders |
| 2 | Mike Bloomberg | Mike Bloomberg |
| 3 | Pete Buttigieg | Pete Buttigieg |
| 4 | Amy Klobuchar | Joe Biden |
| 5 | Elizabeth Warren | Elizabeth Warren |
| 6 | Joe Biden | Amy Klobuchar |
Source: ZettaCap and Predictit, note that the SMI in this table is not just from debate but overall so does not necessarily match ratings from Table 1.
The general convergence between these two methods tends to strengthen the conclusions of each other.
For many months recall that Biden had led in betting markets while SMI showed him as a weak candidate. At that time, our forecast was one in which Biden would eventually take a fall. This appears to have occurred in striking fashion over the last month as even most consensus based pundits have given up hope.
At present, there does not appear to be a major divergence given that the top three leading candidates are in accordance.
Forecasts
We continue to see Sanders winning New Hampshire and gaining a tremendous amount of momentum throughout February, given his currently strong alternative metrics.
As stated in previous posts, we expect moderates to try to stop him through perhaps dramatic measures.
We expect high-profile non-candidate moderate Democrats (Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Eric Holder, and/or others who served in either the Clinton or Obama administration) to impact the race within the next month, prior to Super Tuesday. They have mostly remained outside of the race, while many high-profile progressives and Democratic Socialists have publicly and vocally backed Sanders (with some like AOC actually campaigning with Sanders).
Instead of sitting on the sidelines, we believe these moderate non-candidate Democrats will attempt to make a significant impact on the race to prevent Sanders from becoming the de facto nominee. This scenario is speculative and not directly based on data, but fits with current data trends and the real world environment.
Assuming moderates do not make a major move soon, Sanders will most likely win the nomination and consequently lose to Trump in the general election.
Since the beginning of the Democratic nomination process, we have consistently stated that Trump is favored in the general election based on SMI and other alternative metrics. According to our data only two Democrats can potentially beat Trump — Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama. Without their direct involvement, it is unlikely any Democratic candidate will give Trump a serious challenge in the general election.