Sanders as Front-Runner
A CNN poll, released on January 22nd, showed Sanders leading Biden for the Democratic nomination. It was the first national poll in months, from a mainstream source, in which Biden was not the front-runner. Though other polls continue to point to Biden as the front-runner, on average they show his lead shrinking.
Then on January 25th, Bernie Sanders became the betting market leader for the Democratic nomination with Biden falling to second. Sanders has, for the time being, been able to sustain that advantage.
ZettaCap declared that Sanders was the new Democratic front-runner prior to either betting markets or the CNN poll, while citing Sanders’ positive momentum which began in October — again showing the predictive power of social media influence (SMI) in elections.
At the same time, ZettaCap noted the surprising weakness of both Biden and Warren. During the 5th debate, 6th debate, and 7th debate, ZettaCap’s metrics showed significant under-performance by Biden and Warren.
The above mentioned trends have continued. Going into Iowa, we see Sanders sustaining an SMI lead while Biden and Warren post mediocre figures.
We expect Sanders to win Iowa and New Hampshire. More surprisingly, our data show that Sanders and Biden are even in South Carolina, which the consensus sees as in-the-bag for Biden.
Such positive momentum for Sanders will most likely force the hand of high-profile moderate Democrats who have been sidelined for much of the campaign. These movements would be able to stop Sanders’ momentum but the timing will be important.
Short-Term Forecast
Much of the Democratic nomination should be determined over the next two weeks.
The Iowa caucuses (February 3rd), the 8th Democratic debate (February 7th), and the New Hampshire primary (February 11th) will all have considerable influence on the nomination.
ZettaCap expects Sanders to win all three.
Something or someone would then need to break this momentum, otherwise Sanders winning the nomination will look increasingly likely, even to consensus-based pundits.
A three week window will then open post-New Hampshire. It will be during this period that something unexpected could or perhaps will occur.
This period begins after the New Hampshire primary (February 11th) and ends on Super Tuesday (March 3rd). During this period, the 9th debate (February 19th), the 10th debate (February 25th), and the South Carolina primary (February 29th) will take place.
Biden Slips in South Carolina
Multiple pundits claim that Biden will stage a major comeback starting in South Carolina. However, our data show that Biden’s advantage in South Carolina has evaporated and is now running neck-and-neck with Sanders there. If Biden does not fully dominate South Carolina, as the consensus believes, his ability to perform well on Super Tuesday will be thrown into doubt. Currently, according to predictit.org, the betting market site, Biden has a 76% chance of winning the state.
A scenario of Biden under-performance in South Carolina would be interpreted as a failure of his campaign. Such an event less than a week before Super Tuesday could prove disastrous.
Under this scenario, which we see as likely, an unexpected turn of events could come about. Sanders, with such performance and momentum, would be seen as the most likely nominee and given the aforementioned timing there would need to be a significant and rapid change in order to stop him.
What Unexpected Events could Impact Forecasts?
Moderate or centrist Democrats would likely take this opportunity to try to reinforce their position. Seeing Sanders performing well in the debates, winning Iowa / New Hampshire, and winning or at least outperforming expectations in South Carolina would force their hand.
Moderate Democrats would need to quickly reconfigure their wing’s campaign strategy. This would likely involve high-profile individuals and/or significant changes. Marginal announcements will not make the necessary impact.
Now, we should mention that up to this point, we have relied upon alternative data and related systems. The following potential events that could occur to disrupt Sanders’ momentum, however, are based on speculation:
The above mentioned are speculative. The possibility of most have been discussed in the media. There is no way of knowing the likelihood of any of these actually occurring but given the expected environment if Biden does not fully dominate in South Carolina, we should be prepared for any.
The main point is simply that moderate Democrats are not likely to simply give up due to our expected Sanders’ out-performance.
They would still have options and their time to act will likely be before Super Tuesday (March 3rd) to prevent a rout.
Another important point to highlight is that multiple moderate Democrats consistently post SMIs higher than that of Sanders — specifically, SMIs of Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, and Hillary Clinton are higher. These three individuals can still significantly impact the nomination process, even in the face of Sanders surging.
This point is extremely important and worth repeating. Sanders has the highest SMI of the declared candidates, but his SMI does not match those of either Obama or Hillary Clinton.
Sanders took off only after AOC endorsement
After analyzing our data, we confirmed that Sanders’ momentum began when AOC endorsed his campaign in October 2019. The relationship solidified further when, soon afterwards, Sanders stated that AOC would have an important role in a Sanders administration. Since that time, AOC has campaigned with and for Sanders, so their relationship goes beyond a simple endorsement.
Prior to the endorsement by AOC, Sanders’ SMI was not overly impressive. In fact, though he qualified to be in the top handful of presidential hopefuls, he was not the front-runner according to SMI. Only after her endorsement, as well as the endorsements of other ‘Squad’ members, Michael Moore, and other progressive Democrats and Democratic Socialists, did Sanders’ SMI take-off making him the front-runner.
Biden (or another moderate) could take off after Obama / Clinton involvement
We expect a similar phenomenon to take place for a moderate Democrat assuming he/she receives similar backing by top centrist names.
Having a clear favored candidate on the progressive or left-leaning wing of Democrats has boosted Sanders considerably. The same would be true for moderate or centrist Democrats assuming that candidate becomes clear.
Joe Biden is seen as such by the establishment as well as by pundits, but he was never embraced by the electorate, at least according to our data. SMI fairly consistently put him as a mediocre candidate — the type of candidate who would tend to flounder by himself.
However, Biden or another moderate Democrat could still take back the advantage with the help of Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, and/or Hillary Clinton.
They have extremely strong SMIs and are expected to become involved in the general election versus the Republicans. The shift would be that they would become active much earlier than expected while supporting their preferred moderate candidate and not waiting to see who won the nomination.
Moderate Democrats still have a chance but there needs to be specific actions taken and within a fairly tight time window.