US Midterms — Summary of Forecasts

There are many forecasts for the current Midterms.  In the following table, three forecasts based on single variables and 10 forecasts from forecasters are presented.

Table 1:  List of Forecasts of 2018 US Midterms, House of Representatives, by number of seats

1. For 538.com, the Average of the distribution of forecasts was used for the ‘Classic’ forecast method.
2. For these forecasters, all forecasts even slightly leaning towards a party was considered a positive forecast for that party. Toss-ups were distributed pro-rata between the parties.
3. These single variables were used to forecast current election results based on patterns from previous elections.
4. Using ZettaCap data and Social Media Influence (SMI), these forecasts are the only ones presented here based exclusively on social media data.

For all the discussion of a Red or Blue Wave, this election looks very tight.  The most bullish forecast for Democrats is that from 538.com, which would produce a 16 seat Democratic majority.  By historical standards, such a result would not be extraordinary.  In fact, it would land more or less in-line with an average performance of a first-term president during his first Midterms.  The most Democratic friendly forecast by no means qualifies as a Blue Wave.

The most bullish forecast for Republicans is that from ZettaCap, which would produce a slight 3 seat majority for Republicans.  This again does not qualify as a wave of any sort, though by historical standards the president’s party maintaining power of the House and losing significantly less seats than the average would in effect be a major victory.