Japan’s General Election LDP Re-Election Likely
There is very little indication that Abe’s political rivals are gaining enough traction on social media relative to his own to seriously challenge him. In fact, SMI points to the LDP and Abe handily winning re-election. There is still time for a shift but given the circumstances, explained later, a surge for his rivals seems unlikely.
Snap Election
The next general election, which will elect all members of the country’s lower house, will take place on October 22, 2017. Prime Minister Abe in September dissolved the lower house and called for snap elections. Apparently with the second largest party, the Democrats, in disarray Abe meant to use this period to his advantage and win a stronger mandate which could be used to push through more of his preferred policies and to push aside recent scandals.
Similarities to the UK Election?
Prime Minister May’s logic was similar to that of Abe’s during the 2017 UK Election. She saw difficulty with Brexit negotiations and decided to call for snap elections in order to receive a stronger mandate which would help her enter negotiations in a stronger position. This strategy, however, did not work well as her position was weakened due to relatively poor performance in the election. Though able to hold on to power, May’s Conservative Party lost ground to the Labour Party.
This came as a surprise to most as polls and betting markets pointed to a large lead for May. One indicator that highlighted unusual strength for the Labour Party was Social Media Influence (SMI). It detected a surge in the last month before election-day for Labour and forecast a much closer finish than that projected by polls – essentially calling the outcome ahead of polls.
Could the same thing happen in Japan? Before we can take a look at that, we need to understand the shifting political landscape.
Unexpected Twist
The Democrats (the main opposition party) and the other political parties were ‘supposed’ to wave a white flag and Abe was ‘supposed’ to go almost uncontested to victory – or so LDP had assumed. However, politics rarely goes according to script. The Democrats made the highly unusual announcement that they would allow their members to join other parties or stand as independents with the apparent strategy of forming a broader anti-LDP coalition. This has shifted the entire political landscape within just a matter of weeks.
As background, the LDP, Prime Minister Abe’s party, is the dominant force in Japan having been the main party in 18 ruling coalitions out of 20 elections since WWII ended. It has proven itself exceptionally strong over long periods of time and it seems opposition parties are willing to take extreme measures to unseat it.
Party of Hope
The popular mayor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, formed a new party, the Party of Hope, to contest the election. In addition to support directly related to her own party, she has received a considerable boost from Democratic Party delegates who needed a party for this election. However, Koike was very clear that she would not accept every candidate from the Democratic Party. The Party of Hope has quickly emerged as the LDP’s principal rival.
Constitutional Democratic Party
Those from the Democratic Party who were deemed undesirable and/or too far-left leaning were not accepted by the Party of Hope. These candidates and others have joined to form the Constitutional Democratic Party.
Rapid Movement
These changes and political announcements have been occurring very quickly due to the snap elections. With about 2 weeks to go until election-day, it looks like we now have a new center-right party (Party of Hope) and a new center-left party (Constitutional Democratic Party) contesting against the center-right LDP. There is a lot of movement but the dispersion of political views is not that large as the establishment party (LDP) and the two new parties all tend towards the center.
This is not a case, as we have seen in other countries, where the new entrants are on the political extremes and/or pushing for rapid and significant ‘reforms’ or ‘change’. The new parties talk of reform and attack the LDP as the ‘establishment’, but this is not a situation akin to sea change moments in politics that we have seen in other developed countries during the last two years. Summarizing, there has been rapid political movement in Japan, but not in the radical sense. In fact, on most policy issues, Abe (LDP) and Koike (Party of Hope) seem fairly compatible which has many analysts describing this election more about personality and marketing than policy.
Expected Social Media Dynamics
In an election that has seen the dissolution of one of the largest parties and the emergence of two new national parties within just a few weeks you would expect social media to show significant excitement about these changes. Just with the announcements, news conferences, and speculation about these developments, social media would be expected to express considerable interest with a focus on the new entrants.
LDP’s SMI Dominance
Given the circumstances, it is somewhat surprising that the leading LDP has been so dominant on social media. According to Social Media Influence (SMI), Abe will win handily over his closest rival, Koike, from the new Party of Hope.
Exhibit 1: Social Media Influence (SMI) vs Recent Polls for Japan’s Election
Source: ZettaCap, Yomiuri Shimbun, Kyodo News. Note: Poll data standardized to 100% to take out varying degrees of undecideds and preferences for other parties, this was done to focus on the top two candidates in relative terms.
Comparing SMI to two principal polls shows that Abe has more of a dominating position on social media. Again, this is somewhat surprising given the circumstances which would imply a great deal of interest, even if it was short-term interest, in the newer candidates and parties. The lack of a significant boost on social media is not a positive signal for opposition parties. Unless there is a major change, LDP should outperform current polls and Abe should be re-elected Prime Minister.