Social Media Influence (SMI) tends to work as a leading indicator for elections. In various previous cases, SMI trends have led similar shifts in polls and betting markets. In the 2020 Democratic Nomination, SMI has continued to work as a leading indicator.
Currently, Andrew Yang’s SMI is experiencing an impressive and sustained surge ahead of the 3rd debate. This surge is so substantial that we are posting this unplanned update the day of the debate.
In March, well before Yang entered the mainstream, we highlighted him as one of two potential dark horse candidates (with Buttitieg). We have mentioned him on other occasions as well, including this week when stating that he is one of three to watch closely during the 3rd debate due to improving SMI.
This post serves to further highlight Yang’s surge. Before commenting further, we should make a few disclaimers. First, the 2020 Democratic Nomination race has been characterized by a series of SMI surges by a variety of candidates, none of which has had sticking power. Second, Yang’s metrics are fairly volatile, coming in right behind Buttigieg — which makes sense considering they were arguably the least well known of the current top tier candidates at the beginning of 2019.
It looks like Yang has the potential to become the new ‘it’ candidate — the candidate of the moment, the name that keeps coming up, the hot new face. It might sound a bit exaggerated, but we have already seen this phenomenon play out this year. For instance, Kamala Harris held this position in January and February. Similarly, Pete Buttigieg went from nothing to being seemingly everywhere during April and May. These trends were preceded by surges in SMI for those candidates.
We are currently seeing a commensurate surge for Yang, implying he will soon become the new ‘it’ candidate — for how long though it is not possible to say.
Going along with this trend, we would expect bumps in polls and betting market performance. Additionally, you will likely see news coverage of him and his campaign increase dramatically.
However, this does not necessarily mean he will become the nominee. Recall that this race has been characterized by surges in SMI by a variety of candidates. As such, we would need to see more data before making any longer term forecasts.
It is important to keep in mind that Yang’s demeanor, outlook, and positions are considerably different from the pack. Of the top tier candidates, he is the least political and the most neutral on Trump and his supporters. He also is pushing hard for universal basic income (UBI) which promises $1,000/month per adult citizen. For the Democrats, he is the outlier of the top tier candidates. His policy proposals, business background, and less divisive statements naturally separate him from his peers.
His performance during the 3rd debate tonight will of course provide further insights. As of right now, however, his rapidly improving SMI shows that he is on the verge of making a major breakout movement.