(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018)
SMI and Brazil’s Election – late 2017 to mid-2018
One of the major takeaways has been the consistent strength of Bolsonaro during 2017 and 2018. His SMI, since late August / early September 2017, has been very strong. His booming SMI from about a year before election-day seems reminiscent of Trump and Macron. In both of those cases, these outsider candidates were generating considerable SMI before they were taken seriously by mainstream political pundits and polls. It seems as though a similar phenomenon has occurred in Brazil with Bolsonaro in that the general public via social media took him seriously well before pundits. Given the fact that his SMI has been strong over such a long stretch should translate into votes.
SMIs of various candidates have challenged that of Bolsonaro but none have had the staying power of his. Doria, for instance, produced an exceptionally strong SMI, in-line with that of Bolsonaro when it appeared that he would run for president but then slowly declined in 4Q17 and has not returned. The SMI of Aecio Neves, who ran for president in 2014 coming in second place, also challenged Bolsonaro’s SMI for a time but his potential involvement with scandals has virtually destroyed his SMI.
Lula’s potential stand-in, Haddad, produced a significant SMI surge in late 2017 and early 2018 as he increasingly looked like the PT’s plan B. This surge proved temporary however and his SMI has drifted lower during 2018 to a still respectable level, but no longer at a level close to that of Bolsonaro’s.
This general pattern has appeared during elections in other countries. Various candidates, at different time periods, basically get a hot hand. At times it is a strong speech, a dynamic debate performance, a one-off news item, or similar that initially draws attention to them. They bask in the light of a significant boost in interest but for whatever reason cannot maintain that level for long. Such spikes often appear in polls (this can be seen in the US during pre-primary season as debate performances often produce short lived spikes in casual support) which are normally led by similar spikes in SMI.
In short, Bolsonaro’s consistently strong SMI is the main highlight of the past year. SMIs of other candidates have threatened his position, but those attempts proved to be short-lived.