New Hampshire Primary Post-Analysis

Summary

The New Hampshire primary went more or less according to ZettaCap’s expectations.  In fact, the top five finishers by popular vote match our forecasts based on SMI, as published prior to voting (refer to Table 2 here).

Though the ranked finish is the same as our forecasts, we were surprised by the relatively small margin of Sanders’ victory, as SMI places him further ahead.  As stated in previous posts, Sanders is the favorite going into Nevada and South Carolina, but his marginal win in NH leaves some doubt for Super Tuesday.

We still see this election as up in the air as we expect moderate Democrats to attempt to coalesce around a single candidate, with some potential help from high-profile non-candidate moderate Democrats who, up to present, have remained on the sidelines.

Judging from rapidly developing SMI trends, the three candidates vying to become the new moderate Democrat standard-bearer are, in order of likelihood, Bloomberg, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg. 

Much of the nomination’s outcome rests on events leading up to Super Tuesday (March 3rd).  Our forecasts could very well change depending on how social media and on-line activity reacts to these events (as highlighted further in this post).    

Comparing NH Outcome to SMI Forecast

ZettaCap published prior to the New Hampshire primary a ranking of Democratic candidates based on SMI.  The following table includes this list with the actual outcome in NH as ranked by votes obtained.  It does not include Bloomberg as he did not participate in NH (at the time he ranked in second place according to SMI).

Table 1:  SMI Forecast versus New Hampshire Outcome

Source:  ZettaCap,  Note: Bloomberg was at the time of publication of forecast in second place behind Sanders but as he did not participate in the New Hampshire primary, he does not appear in the table. 

The fact that a forecasting method based on social media data got the correct order of the top five candidates correct is phenomenal to say the least.

Looking Forward 

We continue to expect turbulence as the next three weeks are loaded with important events:

• February 19  — 9th Dem Debate,
• February 22  — Nevada Caucus,
• February 25  — 10th Dem Debate,
• February 29  — South Carolina Primary,
• March 3  — Super Tuesday (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Democrats Abroad, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia)

As Super Tuesday will allocate slightly over a third of the delegates, it will determine much of the race.  We believe there will be a large push from moderate Democrats prior to Super Tuesday in order to prevent Sanders from gaining too much momentum.

Without major changes, Sanders will likely win Nevada and South Carolina (note that Bloomberg will not participate in either).  Our current data show him to be by far the strongest Democratic candidate of those on the ballots in those states.