Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: LGBT Community
The LGBT community is more difficult to forecast as there is less data. My impression is that LGBT voters would have been most inclined to vote Democrat before the legalization of same-sex marriage which likely explains Obama’s relatively strong figures with this group. However, in 2016 the situation is more clouded. On the Republican side, Trump has made a number of outreaches such as after the night club shooting in Florida and during the Republican National Convention speech to the LGBT community. It might be far less than many might want, but in comparison to previous Republican nominees it is exceptional.
On the Democratic side, note that up until fairly recently Clinton was not such a strong supporter for same-sex marriage and according to Poltifact only officially began supporting it in 2013. In contrast, Obama announced his support for same-sex marriage in May of 2012 which likely helps to explain the surge in the percent of the LGBT community voting Democrat in 2012.
But will Clinton get the same support? My impression is that she will get a very high percent, but not as high as Obama. Obama’s case was truly historical. He took a strong political stance less than six months before the presidential election which must have rallied many to vote Democrat. I do not see that being replicated for Clinton. Assuming the percent of the LGBT community voting Democrat declines back to its 2008 level, Clinton would lose 6 percentage points from this group.
As for turnout of the LGBT community, again it is difficult to forecast due to lower levels of data. My impression is that 2012 was an exceptional year as Obama made same-sex marriage a real political topic right before the election which likely produced higher than normal turnout for the LGBT community. I would guesstimate that in a best case scenario, relative turnout will likely move sideways for the LGBT community.
From the perspective of expected increased turnout in 2016, it does not seem like the LGBT community will produce a large increase. On a relative basis, LGBT turnout will likely remain flat or decline as in comparison to 2012 an issue that is central to their community is not a major election topic. You could argue that transgender bathroom policy is a central issue but it seems much less capable of spurring turnout relative to the same-sex marriage issue of the 2012 election.
Summarizing, it seems like the LGBT demographic will continue to disproportionately support Democrats but not to the same extent it did in 2012. The combination of a decline in a major rally cry for the community and in Trump making outreaches seems to imply that Clinton will not see the same oversized support that Obama received, which will play out to be a marginal negative for Clinton.