Summary
ZettaCap expects Joe Biden to be the largest Democratic disappointment of the 22 candidate field.
According to traditional metrics and pundit analysis, Biden is the likely nominee by a rather wide margin. According to Social Media Influence (SMI), Biden is in 4th place and struggling to maintain his position.
SMI has correctly made out-of-consensus calls for many elections, including being the first known quantitative method to forecast victories for Trump (in the US 2016 election), Macron (France 2017), and Bolsonaro (Brazil 2018). The fact that SMI is currently pointing towards unusual weakness for Biden should be noted.
Traditional Metrics for Joe Biden 2020
Traditional analysis puts Biden as the undisputed Democratic front-runner.
In fact, using traditional metrics, it looks like there is not much of a race at all. Instead, traditional metrics imply Biden will trounce his opponents.
For many observers, this is the obvious outcome. As a two term Vice President, he definitely has the necessary experience. Furthermore, he is well-known, well-funded, and well-liked.
Plus, the rallying cry for Democrats this cycle seems to be ‘electability’, which essentially means selecting the candidate with the highest probability of winning. As Biden leads in polls and betting markets, his electability appears to be the strongest of the Democrats which then creates a self reinforcing cycle (the stronger he appears, the more people will back him).
In fact, his poll lead looks practically unassailable. According to Real Clear Politics, Biden’s average lead over the second place Sanders is currently 23.5 percentage points. This spread is large in any race, but considering there are 22 Democrats running, it is off the charts.
In short, if you believe in traditional metrics, Biden should not only win the nomination but win fairly easily.
Social Media Influence vs Polls
When using SMI, Biden’s prospects change. SMI shows that Biden’s performance is rather mediocre whereas polls show him as dominant. It is this obvious divergence that is noteworthy.
Exhibit 1: Social Media Influence (SMI) versus Poll Averages for 2020 Democrats
Source: ZettaCap for SMI, Real Clear Politics for Poll Averages
The chart shows Biden as barely holding onto 4th place in terms of SMI while being the by-far leader in polls.
We have seen similar divergences in other elections. As SMI normally works as a leading indicator, the candidate’s poll figures usually adjust lower towards his/her SMI.
The fact that the differential between SMI and poll average for Biden is the largest among the 2020 candidates implies that he will also be the largest disappointment to the current consensus viewpoint.