German Election
There are two standout candidates in terms of SMI relative to poll figures in the German 2017 Election – Christian Lindner (FDP) and Alice Weidel (AfD). The extent to which the interest in these candidates can translate into votes will determine much of the balance in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house.
US and French Election Standouts
Elections normally have some unexpected standouts and recent elections seem to have more than their fair share. In the US 2016 Presidential Election, Trump and Sanders were not expected to make too many waves prior to the election but certainly will be remembered as the standouts. In the French 2017 Presidential Election, Macron and Melenchon shook the election up with their out-of-consensus stances and surprisingly better-than-expected performances.
In each of these elections, there was one candidate who discussed the need to reform the system and who was difficult to neatly situate on the traditional left-right political spectrum. As these candidates were also fairly new to politics and because they preached reform and not political doctrine, they were able to gain considerable traction drawing from a broad spectrum of voters. Their SMI ratings quickly gained, ahead of poll figures, as interest surged in these non-traditional candidates. In both the US and France, the winning candidates, Trump and Macron, fit this broad description.
The second ‘type’ of candidate that stood out was the interesting and likable ‘radical’. Such candidates took many of the traditional positions of a more politically extreme candidate, but they did so in a personable, quirky, and non-threatening way – essentially breathing new life into old ideas. Sanders and Melenchon were both far-left candidates who spoke of peaceful political revolutions to bring about significant changes. Their likability and offbeat messaging gave them an audience on social media and both of their SMIs did exceptionally well especially in comparison to polls and betting markets.
In the German Election, we have one of each of these general types of candidates. However, neither of these candidates are predicted to make as many waves as their similar predecessors in the US and France.
German Election Standout – Lindner (FDP)
In the German 2017 Election, Christian Lindner is the closest thing there is to a Trump or Macron type candidate.
Like these other two candidates, Lindner has produced a tremendous amount of SMI that well outsizes his poll figures. He is a non-traditional candidate who is able to attract interest from both the left and right of the political spectrum. His party, the FDP, is akin to the US’s Libertarian Party in that it has elements of both left and right leaning policies and in Germany’s current election such an ability to draw from both sides of the spectrum is an advantage. Lindner is also, like Trump and Macron, a newcomer to politics having previously been an internet entrepreneur and even an amateur race car driver. He is different from the standard mold of the boring politician, is charismatic, and is extremely good with social media.
As a quick example of how Lindner attracts both left and right can be seen through comments he has made on immigration, which has become a major election topic due to the refugee surge of 2015/6. He has stated that Germany should strive to be a multi-cultural society (left-leaning) and treat immigrants and refugees well when they come to Germany, even under asylum and emergency-like circumstances (left-leaning). But, they should assimilate to German society (right-leaning) and, in the case of asylum seekers, they should return to their home countries when the threat has passed (right-leaning). His ability to speak to both sides of the political spectrum while demanding change is one of the reasons he has gained significant traction on social media.
But it is not just somewhat contrasting policy stances that have gained him attention. His positions are rather firm and are not always predictable – thereby generating further traction. He does away with politics as usual and instead creates his own path and one that he argues is best for the country and not for a political party or established dogma. In this sense, he has positioned himself as an acceptable anti-establishment candidate, along the lines of a Trump and Macron.
German Election Standout – Weidel (AfD)
Whereas Lindner can be seen as a Trump or Macron type candidate in Germany, Weidel can be seen as a Sanders or Melenchon type candidate.
She is much more radical than most of the other candidates and is seen by many as being on a political extreme. However, she is intriguing, likeable, quirky and interesting in spite of such views. Furthermore, she has the ability to put in very basic and understandable terms what others would dismiss as radical policies.
Now before going further, it should be mentioned that her party, the AfD, is normally characterized as the far-right nationalist party of Germany – in other words, on the opposite end of the spectrum from Sanders in the US and Melechon in France. But for our purposes, it does not really matter, just that she is on a political extreme and yet attracting very much outsized SMI, much more than you would expect judging from her profile.
One of her first breakout moments was a statement on public safety. She mentioned that as a woman she wanted to be able to take the last train home without having to be concerned over safety. This was presumably directed against immigrants, but her ability to take this issue and frame it in a general situation that many women can relate to, even though (presumably) from a far-right perspective, attracted attention. This point is important as she seems to have the ability to present far-right ideas, like Sanders presented far-left ideas, in a disarming way.
More recently, she has attempted to widen the grasp of the AfD from targeting the far-right to targeting a broader pro-Germany or pro-Western values demographic. This is a nuanced argument but one that is allowing her SMI to push beyond what you would expect for a generic far-right candidate repeating the same old lines.
For instance, in the current environment a stereotypical far-right candidate might focus attacks on Islam while Weidel has focused on supporting Western institutions and rule-of-law. As an example, she complained over the government breaking its own laws during the refugee crisis, which is a different approach than simply painting refugees as the source of problems. Such arguments in support for existing laws and institutions are more acceptable by the mainstream and have more potential to gain traction in social media than far-right candidates trying to outdo each other with how extreme they can go.
Another interesting point is Weidel attempting to sell the idea of the AfD as a ‘liberal-conservative’ force. In this sense, they seemingly would regard many other key topics as secondary and focus on keeping Germany German. This far-right party would then become a defender of traditional German culture and of society’s pre-existing institutions and laws, and take less of a stance on other topics.
Weidel’s personal background lends itself to not only making these arguments but also in gaining SMI. In contrast to stereo-types around far-right politicians, she is (obviously) a woman, extremely well educated (PhD in Economics), has lived for years outside of Germany (versus a far-right stereotype of being insular), is fluent in foreign languages (including Chinese), currently lives in Switzerland, and happens to be a lesbian. This is pretty much as far as you are going to get from the stereotype of a far-right candidate.
Alice Weidel’s surging SMI and the changing messaging of the AfD are of interest in the German election but also for global political trends. First, a late surge for Weidel’s SMI could, if sustained, boost AfD’s results. Second, Weidel’s messaging and even background could be a harbinger for the far-right in other countries to follow suit.
Implications for German Election
In the case of Lindner, his SMI has been strong for almost all of 2017. It clearly implies a positive push for the FDP, which to a certain extent has already occurred. Unfortunately for him, German elections do not allow for direct voting for the Chancellor in that voters allocate a vote for their local representative and for their preferred party, which are used to determine the seat distribution in the Bundestag, which then elects the Chancellor. It will be very interesting to see how accurate a candidate’s SMI ratings are at predicting an indirect vote. It seems that such measurements will correctly judge the directional implication but not exactly the magnitude. As such, expect the FDP to outperform but perhaps less so that implied by his SMI ratings.
Weidel’s situation is slightly more complex. Her SMI surge is coming very late in the campaign. And, she does not really have a national platform (such as a series of televised debates) or enough time to fully translate an increasing SMI into equivalent votes. Her situation appears, albeit on a smaller scale, most similar to Melenchon in France as his SMI surged just in the last few months which brought him within striking distance of the leaders. Weidel’s SMI is attractive but less so than Melenchon during the French election. If she is able to continue the pace, expect outperformance for AfD but not to the same extent as that of the FDP.
Implications post-Election
If the AfD outperforms its polls to any great extent, which SMI indicates is a possibility if trends continue, it could be enough to solidify changes in messaging and strategy. The reworking of the far-right nationalist movement into a ‘liberal-conservative’ force upholding Western values and institutions, as well as the rule-of-law could be a powerful combination.
Currently, far-right parties are painted as being based on hate as much of their messaging is against non-Western immigrants. But what if the messaging changes to being pro-Western values and given by an individual, such as Weidel, who does not fit the traditional mold of a far-right nationalist? This could be a trend to watch.
As for Lindner, it seems that his outperformance and that of the FDP should be enough for other politicians to pay attention. Recall that the FDP did not make the minimum 5% hurdle in the last national election before Lindner took over – if the FDP reaches its poll estimates, Lindner would have literally resurrected a party from the dead while roughly doubling its performance. This is not an insignificant accomplishment in a political system that was created to reinforce stability and established politicians.
This is not to imply that many politicians and strategists have not been studying Trump or any of the other recent political phenomenon. But, it seems like they are doing so incorrectly. Copying Trump’s policies will not likely amount to much or even trying to copy his persona. Macron and Lindner have very different policies and personas. However, there are enough similarities around being a non-establishment candidate, a new political face, being able to take firm stances that do not necessarily match the traditional left-right spectrum, being able to attract from both left and right by combining policy approaches if needed, focusing on reforming a stale system, getting people excited about politics and not political dogma, and being very focused on your social media image, social media messaging, and social media influence, for political strategists to take note.