With the election just a week away, we do not believe any forecasts will materially change. It is time to summarize the consensus forecasts, which we believe are mostly based off of polls, opinion, and traditional metrics. For the most part, the forecasters mentioned do not provide transparent models but seemingly rely heavily on national and state polls. These are not our forecasts and we do not incorporate them into our own forecasts. We do however find it useful to know the market consensus.
Based on a basket of forecasters, Democrats have an approximate 90% chance of winning the Presidency, 98% of maintaining control of the House, and a 74% of taking control of the Senate.
A ‘Trifecta’, or the Democrats controlling all three, is around 66%, according to these forecasters.
The average forecast for Electoral Votes puts Biden at 350.
Consensus essentially believes that the election will produce a lopsided victory for Democrats. In the current closely divided political environment, these forecasts amount to a landslide.
Table 1: Summary of Election 2020 Forecasts made by Traditional Forecasting Models, Probability of Winning Presidency, Senate, House
Source: ZettaCap, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight, JHK Forecasts, Decision Desk HQ
Consensus believes that the probability of Democrats winning is exceptionally high.
Table 2: Summary of Election 2020 Forecasts made by Traditional Forecasting Models, Electoral Vote Forecasts
Source: ZettaCap, Princeton Election Consortium, The Economist, JHK Forecasts, Center for Politics, FiveThirtyEight
A point to note for both tables is how tightly these forecasts cluster. There is little difference, even down to the Electoral Vote forecasts. The difference between the highest and lowest forecast is 13, or about the size of a medium state like Virginia or North Carolina.
Normally, when forecasts cluster, consensus expectations are extremely tight. We believe this describes the current environment.
The consensus is about the same in terms of probability of a Biden victory in 2020 as it was in 2016 for a Clinton victory. At both times, traditional-data model-based forecasts hovered around 90%. In terms of Electoral College outcome, consensus is more optimistic in 2020 for a Democratic win.