Our analysis of election-themed products on Amazon continues to point to Trump as the overall favorite. During the past week, Biden closed the gap in one of the seven categories that we follow while allowing it to widen in the other six. Biden is behind in relative terms in all seven categories.
We fully realize that Biden dominates in national and swing state polls. Likewise, we follow the forecasts of mainstream pundits, many of whom place the probability of a Biden victory at +90%.
However, we find it illogical that the candidate who many believe is going to produce a rare modern landslide victory is barely able to sell a branded t-shirt, hat, flag, banner, or face mask on Amazon. Shouldn’t this fact bring a considerable amount of doubt to forecasters? Apparently not from what we can tell.
Table 1: Biden / Trump, Number of Customer Reviews from Political-Themed Products on Amazon Best Sellers Top 100 Lists by Category
| Aug 28th | Sep 7th | Sep 14th | Sep 21st | Sep 28th | Oct 5th | |
| Yard Signs | 31% | 34% | 37% | 39% | 44% | 44% |
| Bumper Stickers, Decals & Magnets | 30% | 28% | 32% | 30% | 34% | 36% |
| Men’s Novelty T-shirts | 1% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Women’s Novelty T-shirts | 2% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Men’s Hats and Caps | 3% | 5% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Women’s Accessories | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Outdoor Flags & Banners | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
Source: Amazon and ZettaCap
The above table shows the relative number of customer reviews in the Top 100 lists by candidate themed products per category. For a more complete explanation, see other posts on our blog regarding the topic.
Basically, a 50% reading suggests an evenly balanced race. Anything below that implies strength for Trump. A 0% figure means that Biden does not have a single product in the Top 100 with a customer review. This is the case in three of the seven categories.
Can a candidate win (and win big) without dominating in the sale of political paraphernalia?
You could likely come up with a scenario, but let’s face it, you’d be doing mental gymnastics. The straightforward explanation to this data is that Biden supporters just are not enthusiastic at all for their candidate while Trump supporters are extremely enthusiastic.
Furthermore this is an open secret. Low enthusiasm numbers for Biden can be found within poll data if you are willing to take time and read beyond the headline nominal figures.
We believe that enthusiasm is a key element to turnout. Without enthusiastic supporters, Biden could struggle on Election Day in unexpected ways. Forecasters should take note.