** This discussion on electability is a continuation of the post Winners / Losers from Debate 4
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The 2020 battlecry for Democrats is electability.
Democrats so badly want to win in 2020 that they have focused, almost exclusively, on the perceived ability of a candidate to win the general election.
The focus on electability is so strong that it has trumped, at least until this point, initial interest in or support for candidates in general.
It seems as if, when looking at the data, that voters become interested in a variety of candidates (just like in other elections at other times) but abort such interest due to their focus on electability. In this case, there is not significant follow-through and therefore the short-term bursts we have seen in this campaign.
Electability, in a sense, forces the electorate early on in the exploration process to ask ‘can this candidate really beat Trump?’ – or, an even more intellectually difficult question, ‘what will others think of this candidate?’.
The result of the focus on electability seems to be Democrats giving up on selecting a candidate they really want for a candidate they think others will want.
Will Electability Work for the Democrats?
The chances of electability working to choose a successful candidate would be greatly improved if the candidates with the assumed highest ‘electability’ overlapped with those performing well (1) in debates and (2) according to alternative metrics such as on social media via SMI.
Unfortunately for Democrats, there is no overlap.
After 4 rounds of debates (6 actual debates due to debate night splitting early on), the candidates who apparently have the highest electability (Warren, Biden, and Sanders) have yet to win a single debate.
Furthermore, these same candidates have proven unable to sustain more than periodic SMI leadership and are often briefly displaced in SMI terms by candidates polling in the single digits – an odd occurrence this far into the campaign.
So, on the one hand, we have Warren, Biden, and Sanders or those seen with higher electability unable to sustain an SMI lead or win a debate.
And, on the other hand, we have candidates not seen as very electable by the consensus but able to win debates and gain short-term traction according to alternative data.
What are the Most Likely Outcomes?
The status quo points towards nominating a candidate with high perceived consensus electability but who does not have enthusiastic backing.
Let’s face it, if they have not been able to win a debate or generate significant social media influence to this point, the wave of enthusiasm taking them into the general election will most likely be limited.
An offshoot of this scenario is one where a candidate who has won debates and generated significant SMI decides on a 3rd party or independent run. This goes beyond our analysis here, but we can assume a candidate could become frustrated if on-line surveys state they won multiple debates and social media appears supportive but the media question ‘electability’ nonetheless.
Lastly, we can easily imagine a new Democratic candidate or candidates entering the race.
We have previously stated that this opportunity was available as the SMI’s of declared candidates were overshadowed by other Democrats who could have interest in running. This is specifically the case for both Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton. Other potential candidates who have been recently mentioned in the news as possible new entrants include Michael Bloomberg and Bob Iger (CEO of Disney).