Summary
Traditional metrics such as polls and betting (or prediction) markets have clearly pushed Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders as the Democratic front-runners. Polls, especially, put them in almost untouchable levels with Biden reaching a 31 percentage point advantage over the 3rd place candidate in the latest CNN poll.
ZettaCap’s social media based metrics, however, see better potential in Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris. We expect the traditional metrics of these two to push higher and to surprise many. We also expect the consensus prospects of both Biden and Sanders to drift lower from their elevated levels over the coming months.
Debates, which start extremely early this cycle in June, should provide more and better insights into this extremely large field. As it stands currently, it appears that the consensus is simply too positive on Biden and Sanders while overly disregarding Buttigieg and Harris as real contenders.
Recap
So far, ZettaCap’s social media based metrics have been performing well in the 2020 cycle.
In this election cycle, the largest to-date surprise has been the success of the relatively unknown Pete Buttigieg. ZettaCap was the first known quantitative model to highlight his exceptional potential. In our post based on his strong social media metrics entitled PETE BUTTIGIEG AS 2020 DARK HORSE, we forecasted:
Buttigieg will likely become the hot candidate within the next few months, surprising most.
From this post in March, his performance has been stellar, leaping from a no-name candidate to a consensus top tier candidate.
ZettaCap also aggressively came out in favor of Kamala Harris the day after her announcement in January. In our post KAMALA HARRIS NEW 2020 DEM FRONT-RUNNER, we placed her as the then front-runner for the Democrats based on a comparative analysis of social media reactions to candidate announcements in other elections:
In summary, the short-term change of her SMI (Social Media Influence) soon after her announcement fits that of a front-runner candidate.
From this time, Harris pushed into the front-runner status in betting markets, remaining there much of January and February.
Traditional Metrics
Polls have been the bread and butter for election forecasting for many decades. They have recently underperformed in a number of major elections, which has partially opened the door for alternative analytics. Regardless, polls still are and continue to be the main focus for traditional based analysis. Here, we will use the most recent of the better-known national polls, in this case that of CNN.
Betting or prediction markets have made considerable headway in the last decade. Such real-money markets adjust quickly and in theory incorporate all relevant information. For our analysis, we will use Predictit.
Alternative Metrics
For our analysis, we will rely on two of ZettaCap’s social media metrics, FIS and SMI.
FIS (First Impression Score) measures the reaction of social media around a candidate’s announcement. It attempts to measure the success of the candidate’s campaign launch with the idea that it provides insights into the initial impression of the electorate regarding that candidate. This knee-jerk reaction on social media provides an indication of how the larger pool of voters will react when they eventually are exposed to the candidate. FIS is important during the early stages of an election as it anchors the dates around respective announcements of each candidate providing a more even playing field.
SMI (Social Media Influence) measures the latest degree of influence that the candidate has on social media. As it is an active time series, it tends to benefit those currently making waves (on social media, in the news, or having recently announced their candidacies). SMI becomes more important in the later stages of the campaign.
Comparison between ZettaCap and Traditional Rankings
For the most part, when looking at general groups of candidates, ZettaCap’s metrics do not vary that much from those used in traditional analysis.
A comparison can be seen in the following table which presents the rankings of the primary Democratic candidates as based on a variety of metrics.
| ZettaCap — FIS | ZettaCap — SMI | CNN Poll | PredictIt | |
| Buttigieg | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Harris | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Biden | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Sanders | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| O’Rourke | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| Booker | 6 | 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Klobuchar | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| Castro | 8 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| Gillibrand | 9 | 9 | 10 | |
| Yang | 10 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| Warren | 11 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
Source: ZettaCap, CNN, Predictit
Consolidating the data across the four metrics, we can generally conclude that the candidates fall into three groups:
As stated, when looking at general groupings, the variety of metrics tend to confirm one another.
When looking at individual candidates, however, there are some serious discrepancies — the main of which regards the candidates having the most potential.
According to ZettaCap’s social media based metrics, Buttigieg and Harris are the ones to watch over the coming months. Traditional metrics highlight Biden and Sanders.
Summary
If you tend to favor polls, the Democratic nomination does not look like much of a race. Biden has a tremendous advantage and seems unassailable. Betting markets are more volatile but point in the direction of Biden and Sanders. According to traditional metrics, much of the nomination outcome has been determined already.
If you tend to believe that social media acts as an early indicator of underlying viability of candidates, then the outlook changes dramatically. Buttigieg and Harris have received considerably positive social media traction which implies that once the broader electorate have had exposure they too could support these lesser-known (as compared to Biden and Sanders) candidates.
This could create a significant shift in the outlook of the race once debates begin in June. The landscape could be dramatically changed by the end of August/September once five to six debates have taken place. The strong early social media traction of Buttigieg and Harris imply that debates will favor them, whereas Biden and Sanders stand to lose ground.