Covid-19 / Coronavirus has produced a massive panic around the world, producing some of the most spectacular shifts in financial markets that anyone alive has seen.
When looking at the number of confirmed cases and deaths much of the data looked unusual. It clearly seemed like the coldest and warmest countries were not getting hit as hard as those with more mild climates. Just eyeballing the data showed that the number of infections as well as mortality rates were lower in non-mild climates.
This information is in contrast to many medical professionals who state that there is little to no evidence the virus is seasonal, implying vulnerability to warmer weather … let alone being vulnerable to both cold and warm weather.
This study runs through the numbers by location, using data compiled up to March 23, 2020.
Our conclusion is that Covid-19 is not as effective below freezing or above mid-70s. The implication is that New York City, for instance, will likely end up having only about three months out of the year when conditions are optimal for the virus — and we would likely get about six weeks in the spring and six in the autumn meaning it would not even be three consecutive months.
This is not to say that the virus is not deadly or dangerous, just not to the extent that many believe.
The likely outcome is that the virus will create shifting ‘hot zones’ around the globe until better medications can be deployed. Such shifts will allow for sharing of scarce resources, better policy responses, and precious time to develop improved treatments.
In the face of forecasts of imminent global economic depression and millions of deaths, this information is a bright spot.
Having said this, please note that our analysis is based on early and rapidly changing data. Further note, that we look at this pandemic from a data analysis approach and not a medical one.
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