CNN Enthusiasm Poll

Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  CNN Enthusiasm Poll

The CNN / ORC International poll  tracked the level of enthusiasm during US presidential election cycles starting from 2003.  The wording of the question is:

“How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in this year’s election– extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?”

This is very straightforward.  The poll actually asked the level of enthusiasm and provided the data broken down by Republican and Democrat.  It seems obvious that the party with a higher enthusiasm would hold an advantage in the election.  It turns out that the data confirms this assumption.

In order to standardize the data, a simple ratio of Republican / Democrat enthusiasm levels was created for three groups – “Extremely Enthusiastic”, “Very Enthusiastic”, and an aggregate of these two top level answers.  Therefore, if the ratio is higher than 1.0 it shows that the Republicans are more enthusiastic and if lower than 1.0 it shows more enthusiasm from the Democrats.

Table 1:  CNN / ORC International Poll on Level of Enthusiasm about Voting in this Year’s Election    

Source:  CNN / ORC International

*Note that 2010 was a mid-term, not presidential election.

These enthusiasm ratios did a very good job in forecasting election results.  In 2004, the parties were tied on the highest level of enthusiasm but Republicans held the advantage thanks to a better ratio in the second highest level, or “Very Enthusiastic”, which was enough for the election victory.  In 2008, the Democrats held a significant advantage in general enthusiasm which resulted in one of the highest voter turnouts for a variety of Democrat-leaning demographic groups.  The 2010 data is from the mid-term elections and shows that Republicans held an unusually high advantage in enthusiasm.  Recall that it was in 2010 that election results shocked many observers due to the Republican strength and it was the same year that Republicans unexpectedly regained control of the House of Representatives.  2012’s enthusiasm gap was very narrow and showed a severe decline from the Democrat’s lead in 2008, the result was a much tighter race than most expected with Democrats winning by a relatively small popular vote margin.

So, using historical examples, this enthusiasm poll tends to work fairly well, though not perfect.  Applying it to 2016, enthusiasm goes to the Republicans.  The ratio of “Extremely Enthusiastic” Republicans to Democrats is higher than any other presidential race in the sample.  The Republican’s advantage declines once you incorporate “Very Enthusiastic” but the Combined ratio still leans towards Republicans.

Using just this poll, it looks like an increased voter turnout in 2016 would tend to favor Republicans over Democrats.  In other words, given the Republicans superior enthusiasm, increased voter turnout would likely benefit the Republicans to a greater degree than it would benefit Democrats.