We cannot take create for the Halloween mask theory concerning election forecasting. But, we can update it to include on-line data. Using Google Search Trends to create our own Halloween Mask Index, we see that the level of implied Trump-themed masks or costumes far exceeds those of Biden for 2020. Following historical precedent, Trump should win the election.
Halloween Mask and Election Forecasting
This is either the silliest or the most insightful of the rule-of-thumb forecasting tools.
It states that whichever candidate has better selling Halloween masks wins the election. At first it might not sound serious but it has produced an impressive trackrecord.
CNN ran a story in 2012 predicting Obama would beat Romney based on the Halloween mask concept. That same article mentions the mask forecasting method in previous elections as follows:
“Obama beat out Sen. John McCain in mask sales in 2008 with the same split as this year. The retailer also predicted a President George W. Bush win over Sen. John Kerry in 2004, a 2000 Bush victory over former Vice President Al Gore, and a Sen. Bob Dole defeat by President Bill Clinton in 1996.”
Correlation or Causation?
Admittedly, it sounds a bit odd to base a forecast on costume sales. However, it seems as though what is really being measured is enthusiasm and interest. From this perspective, we should take this index seriously, just as seriously as rally size, social media metrics, or campaign yard sign sales.
Additionally, the fact that Halloween occurs days before the election makes this one of the few top-of-mind historical indicators available that presumably measures enthusiasm as voters go into Election Day.
Spirit Halloween
The company that has historically compiled the index, Spirit Halloween, has yet to announce its sales figures for the candidates. In fact, it is unclear if they will announce the index this year due to the pandemic. They are opening seasonal stores for Halloween this year, but the numbers of openings are likely much lower.
Instead of waiting for the announcement, we have decided to compile available data to see what some early indications are of mask sales.
Google Search Trends
A straight forward way of inferring the Halloween Mask Index is to look at search trends for the ‘Candidate’s Name’ + ‘Halloween’. The candidate with higher search volume around this topic apparently has greater interest from the public in terms of looking for a candidate-inspired costume or mask. An advantage of using this method is that we can look at data going back to the 2004 election for comparison.
2020 Search Trends
Trump clearly has the early lead. In fact with a few weeks to go before Halloween, it looks like he will be crowned the Halloween Mask champion for 2020.
Chart 1: Google Search Trends, Trump Halloween vs Biden Halloween, 7-day trend, US only data
Source: Google
The trend is self-evident. But how does this compare to previous election years?
Google Trends for ‘Candidate + Halloween’ from 2004 to 2020
Comparing data from previous election years shows that Trump’s current position looks impressive.
In fact, no other candidate has held more of an advantage in this type of search in September and in the first half of October prior to the election.
Chart 2: Google Search Trends, ‘Candidate + Halloween’ Ratio of Winning Candidate / Losing Candidate, 2004 to 2016, 2020 showing Trump/Biden
Source: Google and ZettaCap
This chart more clearly shows the state of the 2020 Halloween competition.
Trump is far ahead of Biden. In relative terms, he is further ahead in relation to his opponent as any candidate has been since 2004 in September and October.
It should be noted that the above index compiled using Google Search data correctly predicted every election outcome since 2004, or since data is available. In other words, it predicted Bush, Obama, Obama, and Trump.