Like the 2016 election, we believe that much of the 2020 election will be won or lost in specific swing states. As we did in 2016, we use alt data analysis to determine levels of support as well as shifts of same in swing states.
Last night’s debate showed a mixed performance for the candidates as neither Trump nor Biden pulled away in terms of swing state leanings.
Each had states where they tended to outperform and underperform according to our debate-focused alt data analysis. These trends will become increasingly clear as we get closer to Election Day and future debates further solidify such trends.
The swing states in which Biden’s alt data outperformed during/after the first debate include:
For Trump, the swing states where he relatively outperformed include:
The states that we consider swing states that did not clearly favor one of the candidates according to our alt data analysis include:
We expect this list to shift as we receive more data from future debates. Currently, it seems to favor Trump — which is especially true when comparing to consensus based forecasts.
The list of states where Biden outperformed only includes one that Trump won in 2016, Wisconsin. The states where Trump outperformed include some of the larger swing states, meaning the potential loss of electoral votes from 2016 could be lower than many expect.
Assuming the state-level forecasts end up being correct, Trump would be within 10 electoral votes of winning, with six toss-up states.