Around this time in the US election cycle, after the first primary votes are cast but before Super Tuesday, candidate’s campaigns obtain a certain amount of momentum. Bernie Sanders clearly has the best momentum, which seems to be universally recognized by social media, pundits, betting markets, polls, etc.
The question is — Can Bernie be Stopped?
We had believed that moderates would coalesce around a single candidate when faced with the strong possibility of Sanders becoming the nominee. This has not happened and there are few signs that it is imminent.
We had also speculated that high-profile non-candidate moderates (such as the Obamas, Clintons, and/or others who served in their respective administrations) would step in and support a moderate candidate before Super Tuesday in the case that Sanders looked like the favorite. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton made some comments expressing doubt that a Sanders’ nomination is the best path, but they did not actually come out strongly in favor of an individual moderate.
Tonight’s debate is exactly one week before Super Tuesday. Moderates have little time to break Sanders’ momentum. And, if Sanders performs well on Super Tuesday, it will make it even more difficult for moderates to change the direction of the race.
One slight disadvantage concerning tonight’s debate is the re-addition of Tom Steyer. Nothing against this candidate, but normally at this stage the number of candidates participating in debates decreases. With seven at the debate instead of six, it will likely be more difficult to stand-out.
This debate could be one of the last stands for moderate Democrats. Sanders has pulled ahead by almost every metric.
Interestingly, moderates still have the most support according to national polls — not when looking at individual candidates, but when looking at aggregate figures.
According to Real Clear Politics, Bernie Sanders currently has 29.3% support. He fairly easily defeats any other candidate.
However, if you aggregate the support of Bloomberg, Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar (in other words those candidates in the moderate ‘lane’), we get 48.6%.
These are not exact comparisons as we do not know for sure if, for instance, a Bloomberg supporter would vote for Klobuchar and not Sanders. But, the point of there being higher general support levels, based on national polls, for moderates than for Sanders is valid.
Looking at the 29.3% implied support for Sanders versus the 48.6% support for moderates tells us that Sanders has not actually won yet and his nomination is not yet inevitable.
Looking at data of individual candidates, however, shows that Sanders is the strong front-runner.
The bottom line here is that moderates need to thin their ranks if they intend to block Sanders. The status quo, with the current field intact, provides an enormous advantage to Sanders.
In very simple terms, there are four candidates (Bloomberg, Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar) in the moderate lane and only two (Sanders and Warren) in the progressive lane. There is just too much fragmentation among the moderates.
For students of history, it is interesting to compare the 2020 Democrats to the 2016 Republicans. At the equivalent period in 2016, Trump had 33.2% versus moderates (Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, and Bush) with an aggregate 52.1%.
Table 1: Comparing Individual National Poll leaders to Top 4 Moderate Candidates in 2016 Republican Nomination and 2020 Democratic Nomination at equivalent times
| 2016 Republican Nomination | 2020 Democratic Nomination | |
| Indiv Front-Runner |
33.20% |
29.30% |
| Top 4 Moderates |
52.10% |
48.60% |
| Difference |
-18.90% |
-19.30% |
Source: ZettaCap and RealClearPolitics
Note: Indiv Front-Runner are Trump for 2016 Republicans and Sanders for 2020 Democrats
Note: Top 4 Moderates are Cruz, Rubio, Kasich and Bush for Republicans and Bloomberg, Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar for Democrats
These figures look extremely similar. Even the advantage of the moderates at approximately 19% over the front-runner is strikingly comparable for both election cycles.
Tonight’s debate still offers a chance for the moderates. Sanders’ nomination is not yet inevitable, but one moderate needs to stand-out during the debate and be recognized as the main moderate candidate.
If the debate does not produce any knock-out blows and/or if there is no coalescing around a single moderate candidate, Sanders looks like the nominee.