Summary
This debate could be one of the most important, if not the most important, of the election cycle. Notice ‘of the election cycle’, not of the Democratic nomination process.
This debate will likely provide strong indications of not only who will win the nomination but if Democrats have a chance against Trump in the general election.
We expect either Sanders or Bloomberg to jump ahead post-debate. As this is Bloomberg’s first debate, a strong or weak performance could either give further fuel to his already rocketing campaign or demolish it. Sanders position could be greatly benefited or dented depending on the outcome.
As for indications for the general election, we also see the 9th debate as key. From early in the campaign, we warned of declining interest and enthusiasm among Democrats, based on traditional and alternative metrics, which we expected to negatively impact their chances in the eventual general election. If there are real signs of a turnaround during the 9th debate, Democrats’ chances in the general would improve greatly.
9th Debate as a Determinant of the Nominee
First, let’s look at the debate from the perspective of the Democratic nomination process.
Most pundits have highlighted three predominant trends over the last month or so: (1) Bernie Sanders taking the lead, (2) Joe Biden’s campaign’s rapid decline, and (3) Mike Bloomberg’s rapid ascent.
The 9th debate will be a milestone as it will help to magnify these trends or perhaps invert some of them.
Bloomberg recently took the SMI lead from Sanders and we believe Bloomberg has the advantage going into tonight’s debate based on a variety of social media metrics that we follow.
However, other alternative metrics, such as search trends, point to Sanders as having a limited advantage over Bloomberg. Essentially, leadership changes depending on the indicator, so it is difficult to declare an absolute front-runner when looking across a variety of metrics — though we still place Bloomberg ahead as we give preference to our social media based SMI.
Joe Biden continues to look like a mediocre candidate, as he has during almost the entire campaign (as highlighted many times in 2019 and 2020 by our analysis). We do not expect a major change for his outlook due to tonight’s debate.
For comparison, we should highlight the outlook from traditional metrics. National polls place Sanders well ahead of the pack, with Biden in second, and Bloomberg in third (trailing Sanders by approximately 13 percentage points). Betting markets have Sanders in the lead with Bloomberg in second and Biden third. But, Sanders’ lead is even more impressive using this indicator as his probability of becoming the nominee (at 52 cents) is exactly double that of Bloomberg’s (at 26 cents).
Independent of the indicator or method, Bloomberg shows an impressive amount of momentum. Even according to polls, his improvement over the last month has been impressive. An important part of the story here is simply Bloomberg’s rapid ascent.
In short, our preferred SMI already has Bloomberg in the lead. Other alternative data show on average Bloomberg and Sanders battling for front-runner status. More traditional metrics have Sanders in the lead still with Bloomberg moving higher. All, however, show Bloomberg’s rapid improvement.
We believe, given the state of the race, that the 9th debate will determine who the true front-runner is.
Scenario 1: Bloomberg Wins the Moderate Lane
If Bloomberg can just finish the debate with a better ranking than those in the ‘moderate’ Democrat lane (Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar), it should be seen as a major win for him.
With the type of SMI momentum that he has sustained over the past month, together with his greatly improving betting market and poll performances, he just needs to show that he can win within the moderate lane at the debate.
If he can do this, he will likely be able to solidify his front-runner status among moderates. This should translate into a binary face-off with Sanders, who would in this scenario represent the left-leaning portion of the Democratic Party.
Scenario 2: Bloomberg Wins the Debate
If Bloomberg wins the debate, according to our data, his already impressive momentum should continue. He would, under such a scenario, become not only the front-runner of the moderate Democrats but the consensus front-runner for the nomination.
In such a scenario, Bloomberg’s debate performance would exceed that of Sanders, who according to our data has won the last two debates and who is seen as the front-runner by the consensus.
A victory by Bloomberg would likely invert the entire narrative of the eventual Sanders’ nomination that has become predominant over the last month in the media.
Scenario 3: Any Moderate Finishes ahead of Bloomberg
Bloomberg not finishing ahead of the other moderates could become extremely negative for him and for moderates in general.
Bloomberg’s ascent has been mostly based on TV ads, social media, and media reports — the majority of the electorate has yet to see him in an unscripted event. If, for whatever reason, Democrats do not take to him, his rapid ascent could just turn into a bubble which could burst.
Such a scenario is difficult to forecast or quantify. But, most likely such an outcome would just result in further confusion and volatility within the Democratic Party.
Moderates, in order to compete with Sanders who has essentially dominated the left portion of the Party, need to coalesce around a single candidate. A convincing Bloomberg victory in the 9th debate would likely result in Bloomberg becoming that lead moderate. However, if Klobuchar, Biden, or Buttigieg finish ahead of Bloomberg, the scenario becomes murky with the probability for some sort of brokered convention or a behind-the-scenes decision taking place — neither of which would bode well for Democrats.
9th Debate should Prove Pivotal
Bloomberg has risen at a tremendous, perhaps unprecedented, pace this late in the cycle. Much of his rise has been based on expectations and the vacuum that was left by Biden’s decline. Now, Bloomberg has his chance to fulfill these high expectations during the 9th debate. But he also has the chance to disappoint.
The 9th debate should prove pivotal for the Democratic nomination, much more so than previous debates.
9th Debate as a Determinant for the General Election
Since early in the election cycle, there have been indications that the interest / enthusiasm level among Democrats was underwhelming.
Our interpretation was and is simply that lower enthusiasm should result in lower voter turnout in the general election, which of course is an extremely negative signal to see early on.
After the 2nd debate (July 2019), we noted:
After the 3rd debate (September 2019), we noted:
We have watched over the course of the nomination cycle as various indicators of voter interest and enthusiasm have further underwhelmed.
The 9th debate could provide a solid inflection point for Democrats’ interest level.
This debate has the potential to be a large draw.
Sanders is way up according to betting markets and polls. His supporters should be extremely enthusiastic at this stage. In addition, his campaign is pushing hard to attract moderates.
And, of course, we have the ‘surprise’ (only being confirmed a few days prior to the debate) announcement of Bloomberg’s participation at the debate. This should have anyone interested in politics tuning in.
We have also witnessed minor surges in metrics of Buttigieg and Klobuchar over the last few debates. Klobuchar especially has stood out finishing second according to SMI in the previous three debates. And, with Buttigieg performing well in both Iowa and New Hampshire, he has potential to increase interest as well.
Lastly, Biden and Warren, though not having performed well at debates according to our metrics, were each betting market leaders at different stages. If they do not perform well over the next few weeks, they could be forced out of the race, so the pressure is on to stand out.
We are clearly looking for breakouts in:
Given the timing and importance of the 9th debate, we expect to see improvement in each of these metrics. Under such a scenario, the Democrats’ chances would improve significantly as it would show a return of interest.
If, however, these metrics continue to point towards relatively low levels of interest for the Democrats, we will increasingly see their chances of winning the general election as minor.