A quick note prior to Iowa voting.
We have posted regarding Bernie Sanders’ surge in terms of social media influence (SMI) and other alternative metrics which began during his October 19, 2019 rally, in which he was officially endorsed by AOC, other ‘Squad’ members, and other progressives and Democratic Socialists.
Sanders shows the strongest SMI position going into voting in Iowa. We have previously forecast Sanders winning Iowa and this last week’s data confirms our forecast.
Another candidate who will likely outperform consensus expectations is Andrew Yang. His SMI shows considerable strength and momentum going into Iowa. We expect headlines this week to highlight him as one of the positive surprises of Iowa.
According to SMI as well as other alternative metrics, the underlying support for Yang is considerably larger than that picked up by polls and betting markets. We highlighted this phenomenon in various posts, especially those showing him as the winner of many of the Democratic debates. Current data trends support this conclusion and we expect him to outperform in Iowa.
In the case of Pete Buttigieg, we see the reverse phenomenon playing out. His SMI continues its downward trend while falling to a mediocre level. Such a pattern is somewhat surprising considering he was recently billed by polls and pundits as being ‘tied in a four-way race for Iowa’ with Sanders, Biden and Warren. We expect Buttigieg to fall short of consensus expectations.
Another surprise has been the recent performance of Michael Bloomberg, who is not involved in Iowa. For months, ever since he entered the race, his SMI has pointed to a mediocre candidate, more akin to a second tier candidate than a front-runner.
Just in the past week, however, his SMI has surged to almost match that of Sanders. This could be a short-term phenomenon, such as one based on a recent event as back and forth versus Trump or based on his aggressive TV ad spending which included a Super Bowl ad. We will need to see if this trend can continue before making further forecasts involving Bloomberg.
One interpretation, which again we will have to wait before confirming, is that the electorate feels the shift toward Sanders and is hurriedly searching for a centrist or moderate Democrat as backup in the case that Biden falters. This is plausible and one that would throw another twist into this already volatile nomination process.
ZettaCap has been consistent in pointing out Biden as a relatively weak candidate. From poor debate performances to weak general traction (according to our metrics based on alternative data), Biden was not able to take the mantle of front-runner.
The electorate and seemingly political analysts have picked up on this over the past few weeks. Multiple media stories have speculated what moderate Democrats might do in the case that Biden underperforms. We have even seen stories related to John Kerry entering the race. The point is not that Kerry is or would enter the race, simply that the consensus seems to be beginning to understand that Biden might not be the strong candidate they believed him to be and are searching for a moderate replacement.
Perhaps, that candidate, at least for the time being, could be Bloomberg — as evidenced by his SMI surging as more news stories of moderate Democrats ‘panicking’ at the thought of Biden losing his front-runner status have appeared.
Bloomberg is a potential substitute or at least another moderate option. But there are plenty of options for moderates and even for Biden, as we outlined in our previous posts on the topic.
Iowa is not a make or break for any candidate. However, our expected scenario of outperformance by Sanders and underperformance by Biden should set off many alarm bells for moderate Democrats. We expect considerable volatility over the next month, especially if our base case of Biden weakening in polls in South Carolina and Texas comes about.