What Real World Events might we Expect to have had an Impact from October to January on the Race for the Democratic Nomination?
It is interesting to review some of the major political events that have occurred since October in order to show the real world events that many would assume to have had the largest impact on the race did not.
From a news perspective, the most significant topic since October has been the impeachment inquiry. Clearly, you could expect this to have an impact on the Democratic nomination as it indirectly involves the poll and betting market front-runner (Biden).
Also during this period, two major, once top-tier, candidates (Harris, O’Rourke) dropped out of the race. Normally, when vacuums are created by those dropping out, other candidates receive a positive bounce. So, we could expect some natural shifting to occur.
We also saw the entrance of new Democratic candidates into the debates (Steyer) as well as into the race (Bloomberg, Patrick). One of these new candidates could have experienced the biggest improvement as the electorate sought new blood.
A top-tier candidate (Sanders) also had a heart attack and subsequently was endorsed by social media savvy first term congresswomen, AOC (from ‘The Squad’). We might expect a mixed result here due to the seriousness of the health issue offset by high-profile endorsements.
Lastly, there were persistent rumors that the Democrat’s standard-bearer from the last election (Clinton) might be considering another run. Though this rumor was not confirmed, it was not fully denied either.
October Rally for Bernie Sanders
Of the impressive list of real world events that occurred between October and January, AOC’s endorsement of Sanders appears to have had the largest impact on the race, at least according to SMI trends.
Soon after his heart attack was confirmed (October 4, 2019), Sanders announced a major rally for October 19, 2019.
Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, and Rashida Tlaib spoke at the rally as did filmmaker Michael Moore. These four are some of the most well known, left-leaning and social media savvy Democrats. Their official endorsements of Sanders, though it was likely understood or implied already, was a watershed moment.
Whereas many high-profile Democrats have decided to wait until the field thinned out more before making endorsements, multiple strongly left-leaning Democrats endorsed Sanders at the rally.
Sanders became the left-leaning standard bearer. Though many of the current Democratic field have followed Sanders to the left, even endorsing the Green New Deal, it was Sanders at this rally who solidified the position of standard bearer for the most left leaning wing of Democrats as well as for the Deal’s platform.
The rally obviously made the news but its impact on the race has been severely underestimated.
Most observers already knew that AOC was extremely popular and influential on social media and that her endorsement would carry significant weight. SMI has shown just how powerful this endorsement has been.
Sanders has improved to a greater extent than any other Democratic candidate since the October rally.
Further and perhaps most importantly, his SMI seems increasingly linked with that of AOC, which in the current environment is extremely beneficial considering her strong SMI. Sanders mentioning that AOC would hold a key position in his administration has helped to solidify this link.
Interestingly, it was not just Sanders who received a boost in SMI. AOC also has benefited as presumably it highlights her potential entrance into a presidential administration.
In short, the most impactful event during the home stretch of the nomination process before voting begins appears to have been the endorsement of Sanders by AOC. Yes, to reiterate, this received news coverage but minimal in comparison to the impeachment proceedings and even to the Democratic debates.
And yet, according to SMI, it appears to have had the largest impact on the race during this time frame.
You cannot simply rely on pure analysis of news, pundit analysis, betting market trends or polls when it comes to elections. The analysis of social media can often identify, well ahead of other forms of analysis, emerging political trends.
Clinton’s Non-Denial
There has been speculation that Hillary Clinton might run again. Though such rumors have been around since election-night 2016, an apparent decrease in interest in the 2020 Democratic debates and a lack of a firm front-runner seems to have opened the door to further speculation.
Then in November 2019, she made statements such as ‘never say never’ and ‘many, many, many people’ were urging her to think about running again. Such non-denials have revived speculation that Clinton is interested in running.
Her SMI has zoomed higher and has become one of the largest beneficiaries over the period. Considering we are rapidly closing in on Iowa voting, the fact that her non-denial has made such a significant impact should be telling in the sense that it highlights the overall weakness of the field of declared candidates.
As we have stated on multiple occasions, based on SMI, if Clinton were to run she would almost immediately become the front-runner.
Exit and Entrance of Candidates
The exit of Harris and O’Rourke did not produce a direct major shift in SMIs of the remaining candidates. Often, we see SMIs of particular remaining candidates improve as voters shift focus from recently exiting candidates to their new favorites. This was not the case.
Interestingly, the SMI of Harris improved somewhat post-exit which shows that she will likely remain a central character in the Democratic Party even after leaving the race. We look for O’Rourke, in contrast, to fade as his SMI has plummeted post-exit.
In terms of new entrants, many had high-hopes for Bloomberg. According to SMI, however, his entrance should make little positive impact for Democrats and he poses little threat to seriously challenging the front-runners.
Impeachment’s Impact
The most covered news event since October with the assumed power to impact the nomination and even the general election outcome was the impeachment inquiry. Not only has this dominated news coverage but the discussion of impeachment also includes Joe Biden who is still the Democratic front-runner according to polls and betting markets.
Though volatile, Biden’s SMI has returned to approximately the same level as it stood when the impeachment inquiry began, implying that Biden’s candidacy has neither significantly gained nor lost due to his involvement in the topics discussed during the inquiry.
At the beginning of the impeachment inquiry, we could have expected significant longer term impact on Biden’s SMI. This does not appear to be the case. Biden, in mid-January, looks to be about the same level of candidate as he was when the inquiry began. In his case, however, this does not infer a strong candidacy. In fact, ZettaCap has seen him as a mediocre candidate for some time given his rather low SMI and his poor debate performances.
Surprisingly, the impeachment does not appear to have had a significant impact on the Democratic nomination. Given the news coverage and general exposure, this observation appears somewhat shocking. But, according to our analysis of social media trends the impeachment was not the major factor impacting the nomination process.