Summary
The big winner of the 6th Democratic debate was Andrew Yang. Social Media Influence (SMI), our main election forecasting tool, put him at the top, as did the on-line post-debate surveys of who won the debate, as highlighted in Table 1. According to SMI, Yang has won four straight debates.
Amy Klobuchar was the largest positive surprise. Her second place SMI finish was by far her best debate performance. We expect her to receive another look from many moderate Democrats.
Sanders and Buttigieg logged strong enough results in both SMI and on-line surveys to remain relevant and in the top-tier of candidates.
Biden and Warren posted extremely disappointing figures considering how traditional metrics (such as polls and betting markets) have them at or near the top of the candidates. This divergence of Biden and Warren performing poorly during debates (according to SMI and on-line surveys) while polling well has been a characteristic of the 2020 Democratic nomination.
The field remains fragmented and no single candidate has been able to effectively breakout. Many candidates have experienced short-term bursts but have not successfully consolidated those gains. Such a field going into 2020 leaves much to be resolved.
The Data
There are three different types of data in Table 1 (below).
SMI uses social media data to measure on-line influence. The next two entries, Heavy and Washington Examiner, are on-line surveys asking who won the debate. We specifically chose a left-leaning (Heavy) and right-leaning (Washington Examiner) survey sources to see if there was any difference. The last two refer to Google Search popularity during the debate and during a peak period from the next day to see how trends might have shifted post-debate when people search to find out more about a candidate.
It is important to state that SMI’s rankings are completely independent of the other forms of analysis — and that SMI provides similar yet unique insights.
Additionally, we should highlight that SMI made early and correct forecasts for the 2016 US Election, 2017 French Election, and 2018 Brazil Election – all considered extremely difficult elections to correctly forecast.
Comparative Rankings
The following table lays out the ranked finish of each of the seven candidates participating in the debate according to a variety of methods.
Table 1: Ranking by Candidate’s Debate Performance by a Variety of Methods
| SMI | Heavy.com (Survey) | Washington Examiner.com (Survey) | Google Search, during debate | Google Search, next day | Avg. | |
| Andrew Yang | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1.4 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4.6 |
| Bernie Sanders | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3.4 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3.0 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4.4 |
| Joe Biden | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4.8 |
| Tom Steyer | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 6.4 |
Source: ZettaCap, Heavy.com, WashingtonExaminer.com, Google Trends
Focusing on SMI data, Andrew Yang once again prevailed on debate night. This makes an extremely impressive four debate wins in a row according to SMI for Yang. In almost any other campaign, such a string of debate wins would amount to a breakout moment. The 2020 Democratic race, however, has proven more difficult to predict due to the Democrats’ focus on ‘electability’.
Additionally, Yang placed first in both of the left and right-leaning post-debate surveys presented in Table 1. The right-leaning Drudge Report’s survey, not shown, also firmly placed Yang as the winner. According to those taking the time to vote on-line after the debate, it seems universal that Yang came out on top.
Google search trends, taking an average of during the debate and during a key period the day following the debate, place Yang on top. Considering he ranked so highly using other metrics, Yang winning at Google search makes his performance exceptional.
Amy Klobuchar logged her best debate performance of the year. According to SMI, she finished second which is in contrast to her rather meager performances in prior debates. Though her results were more mixed across the various metrics in Table 1, we believe that her performance will prove strong enough to attract more attention over the coming month, especially as her moderate positions could qualify her for the rather ambiguous metric of ‘electability’.
Bernie Sanders also posted an impressive debate performance. According to SMI, he has finished in the top three positions in the last three debates. On-line debate surveys have him in the top few as well. Though he has yet to garner the type of traction necessary to become the front-runner, his 2019 performance has been one of the most consistent. His third place SMI finish highlights this consistency.
Biden and Warren continue their patterns of poor debate performances. According to SMI and on-line surveys, both finished near the bottom of the field. Google search seems to have marginally redeemed them, however, the top search topics for each during and soon after the debate are not flattering. In other words, higher rankings for Google search do not necessarily imply support in their particular cases.
Interestingly, though Biden and Warren have performed poorly in debates, they continue at or near the top of national polls, with Biden leading and Warren in third. ‘Electability’ continues to be an important driving factor for Democrats.
In contrast, Yang who according to SMI has won the last four straight debates is polling in seventh place.
The latest debate showed us that those who seem to be performing well during debates are not necessarily those who are doing well in polls and betting markets. Likewise, those near the top of the polls do not seem to be performing well at the debates — save Sanders. This is a trend that has been apparent for some time, and not one having started in the most recent debate.
Implications of Yang’s Strong Debate Performances
There are two likely outcomes of Yang’s unusually strong debate performances in contrast to his trailing polling figures.
The first scenario is one where Yang’s campaign takes off over the next few months. In other words, he successfully leverages his apparent debate wins into real world support and votes in the primaries. In such a scenario, Yang would be in the top three candidates and have a real shot at the nomination instead of a distant seventh place in the polls and sixth in betting markets.
However, given the Democrats’ apparent laser focus on ‘electability’ this cycle, we find it difficult to make such a call. Yang apparently does not hold this quality, at least according to political pundits who repeat this electability mantra.
The second scenario, which at this late stage seems more likely, is that a second fault line will be created within the Democratic Party. The assumed first fault line is between the moderate, traditional, centrist Democrats and the progressive, Green New Deal, Democratic Socialist Democrats. In other words, the Biden/Klobuchar group vs the Sanders/Warren group.
This second fault line could be built around Yang and his Universal Basic Income (UBI) platform. Yang is the only major candidate to push UBI or to hold it at the core of his campaign. It seems as though Yang and the UBI concept have garnered a significant and enthusiastic following. The big question now is how entrenched will Yang’s supporters be and could this become a fault line?
According to SMI, Yang has won the last four debates. According to on-line surveys, he has won every debate. This is not the type of candidate you can easily brush off. His followers are enthusiastic and UBI has gained traction — considering that both he and the UBI concept were relatively unknown (by the mainstream) just a year ago, such a flip is significant.
Yang / UBI could be the 2020 version of Sanders / Democratic Socialism of 2016. At that time, Sanders almost single-handedly brought Democratic Socialism to the US mainstream. We see similar early pointed enthusiasm on social media around Yang and UBI.
It is difficult to determine how exactly this will play out for the Democrats. The introduction of a second major fault line would not be good news though. The risk of a fracture or fractures within the Democratic Party grows with each additional fault line. Even without a break, we can assume that turnout will be negatively impacted by feelings of entrenchment.
Since the beginning of 2019, we noted in our social media influence analysis that clustering was occurring around different thematic politicians / groups. A new cluster around Yang / UBI simply complicates the nomination process.
A potential second fault line within the Democratic Party adds to the difficulties we have noted in previous posts. According to SMI, no Democratic candidate has been able to sustain a significant lead, making the nomination process thus far be characterized more by spikes than by strong trends. The implication has been little consistent traction for any single candidate. Additionally, our analysis of social media, on-line surveys, debate viewership, search trends … has shown interest and enthusiasm at mediocre levels implying that turnout could be negatively impacted. A Yang-centric fault line will not help the situation for Democrats.