Summary
Social Media Influence (SMI) shows that Andrew Yang has won the last three Democratic debates. It also shows Bernie Sanders placing second in the last two debates. Pete Buttigieg is highlighted as being one of the most consistently strong performers as well.
In contrast, Biden and Warren, two well known long serving Democrats who tend to poll well have not been strong debate performers according to SMI.
Debate Performance Trend
Comparing the ranked debate finishes, by SMI, is instrumental in that it highlights the strength of a few non-traditional candidates as well as the weakness of a few perceived front-runners.
Table 1: Social Media Influence (SMI), Ranked Finishes of Democratic Candidates at Debates
| Debate 1 | Debate 2 | Debate 3 | Debate 4 | Debate 5 | Avg | |
| Yang | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 |
| Sanders | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3.8 |
| Buttigieg | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2.8 |
| Harris | 1 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4.6 |
| Booker | 5 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 6.6 |
| Gabbard | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3.5 | |
| Klobuchar | 7 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7.4 |
| Warren | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Biden | 9 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 7.6 |
| Steyer | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Source: ZettaCap
Now, just looking at SMI debate rankings during the five debates, we would assume that Yang, Sanders and Buttigieg would be currently battling it out for leadership, with Gabbard just outside of front-runner status.
Yang has finished in the top three spots in every debate, has a trend of improving finishes and has won the last three debates. In a standard election, Yang would be doing extremely well, likely leading in betting markets and/or polls.
In a similar vein, Sanders has shown a strong trend of improving finishes and has ranked second in the last two debates. We would expect him to be tightly competing with Yang for leadership.
Buttigieg has been one of the most consistent debate performers. In terms of the average of the finishes, he places second to Yang. We would also expect Buttigieg to be near the top by most metrics.
Gabbard also deserves a mention as her average debate performance based on SMI put her in the top half of candidates. Considering her average debate performance ranking, we would see her as being a still viable candidate just outside of the front-runners.
In contrast, we would expect Warren and Biden to be struggling to stay relevant, having finished in the middle or bottom of the pack during each debate.
Debates are, quite obviously, important facets to modern elections. It is almost unheard of for candidates to perform poorly during debates but pull off dramatic election-day victories.
Further it is not just SMI highlighting these trends. On-line surveys taken post-debate show that Biden and Warren have mostly logged mediocre to poor performances. During the most recent debate, in fact, they finished near the bottom of the pack.
These same on-line surveys have shown Yang, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Gabbard as being strong performers. Such data tends to confirm the debate SMI trends outlined in Table 1.
Traditional Metrics
Polls and betting markets have not, as a general rule for the 2020 Democratic nomination race, been incorporating debate performances — which is rather unusual in comparison to the many previous elections we’ve analyzed.
In fact, Biden and Warren, two candidates seen as performing poorly in debates, have generally been viewed as front-runners due to their attractive poll figures and betting market performances.
Also, some of those seen as outperforming during debates are laggards in polls and betting markets. Andrew Yang who has won the last three debates according to SMI is currently in 6th place in both polls and betting markets. Gabbard, whose debate performance has been less consistent but still strong, fares even worse being tied for 8th place according to polls and 10th in betting markets.
The focus on ‘electability’ by the Democrats seems to be distorting the conclusions reached by the various analytical methods. Over time, we expect such inconsistencies to decrease which implies a deterioration for Biden and Warren, and an improvement for Yang.