ZettaCap began speculation in February (here) of a “reluctant savior” having to come in to help Democrats due to the expected “broad fragmentation”. We have on occasion mentioned the possibility of Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton entering the race as their SMIs overshadowed those of declared Democratic candidates.
According to our data, a window is still available for late entrants as: (1) the declared Democratic candidates have produced rather mediocre SMIs as a group, and (2) a true front-runner has yet to emerge based on the lack of sustained SMI leadership by any single candidate.
Two potential candidates, who we have mentioned in other reports as producing improved chances for the Democrats, are Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton. Those most cited in speculative reports outside of Obama and Clinton do not possess sufficient SMI to be considered viable in a general election against Trump.
Tom Steyer
Tom Steyer entered the race in July, which for the current cycle was relatively late considering Democrats had already had a debate. His Social Media Influence (SMI), our main political forecasting tool, has consistently shown him to be a weaker candidate. Even upon his announcement, which normally produces favorable social media readings, Steyer looked unimpressive.
Deval Patrick
Patrick announced just in November — extremely late considering he has already missed four debates. Even though his announcement made mainstream news and was considered a surprise (implying it might produce some impact), SMI has remained meager.
Michael Bloomberg
Bloomberg has sent mixed signals for most of 2019, and recently confirmed his entry into the race. SMI implies Bloomberg will not be a front-runner. In fact, he will likely fall almost immediately to the second tier of candidates once the dust settles on his announcement.
Bob Iger
Iger’s potential candidacy is more speculative in the sense that others discuss it more than he has. And, unlike other potential candidates, his involvement with politics has been minor. SMI shows that he would have little impact in the case he ran for the nomination.
Hillary Clinton
Clinton might not be the favorite for many Democrats, but SMI shows that she would be a superior choice than any current Democratic candidate. Further, this has been the case during most of 2019. While declared candidates have participated in nationally televised debates, hit the mainstream media, hired entire campaign teams, and/or published books, they have been unable to supersede Clinton’s SMI for any significant period of time. Again, she might not be the favorite of many Democrats but if she were to declare she would quickly become the front-runner, at least according to SMI.
Michelle Obama
According to our current data, Michelle Obama is the only potential Democratic candidate who could seriously take on Trump in the 2020 general election. We have speculated on the possibility of her running and still see it as a strong outcome for Democrats. However, unlike other potential candidates, Michelle Obama has remained stoic which implies her interest in running is minimal.