Summary
According to Social Media Influence (SMI), there have been considerable shifts in the Democratic 2020 campaign since the 2nd debate which took place on July 29th and 30th. Kamala Harris lost her SMI leadership position with Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg declining as well. In contrast, the three main SMI gainers over the last 6 weeks were Bernie Sanders, Andrew Yang, and Beto O’Rourke.
These are major changes as Sanders took SMI leadership for the 1st time since his candidacy announcement, Yang’s SMI hit a new high, and O’Rourke breathed new life into a previously demoralized campaign.
Possessing the greatest amount of positive SMI momentum, we expect Sanders, Yang, and O’Rourke to gain the most traction during the 3rd debate which is scheduled for this Thursday September 12th.
Debates are of course difficult to preview beforehand. However, according the SMI trends over the previous month, Sanders, Yang and O’Rourke have stood out implying that there will be more individuals open to hearing them than in previous debates, which provides an excellent opportunity.
As no current Democratic candidate has been able to sustain an SMI lead over any extended period of time, this nomination is still up for grabs.
Overview of Main SMI-based Observations, Unchanged or In-Line
Social media based observations and forecasts that remain in-line with those previously stated:
- Joe Biden is a Mediocre Candidate – Though leading in polls and consistently posting strong betting market performance, Biden has yet to impress via SMI, which puts him as a distant 5th . We expect him to struggle and for his traditional metrics to eventually decline to be more in-line with that of his SMI.
- Buttigieg and Yang are Wild-Cards – Both candidates were highlighted here early in the campaign as potential dark horse candidates. SMI continues to point in this direction, however Buttigieg has fallen from his previously white-hot level back to a more normal one whereas Yang has pulled into 2nd . Take forecasts concerning these candidates with a grain of salt as their respective data is more volatile than most. However, Yang is definitely one to watch in the 3rd debate given his rising SMI.
- Decrease in General Interest – Based on our 2016 data, we expected a minor decline in our social media metrics that measure interest from the 1st Democratic 2020 debate to the 2nd. The actual decline was larger than expected which we continue to see as a significant red flag for Democrats in general. This observation was stated after the 2nd debate and continues to be valid until proven otherwise.
- Strength of Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton – SMI continues to point to these two as SMI leaders for the Democrats. Since the beginning of 2019, we have highlighted their respective SMI strength. The fact that these non-candidates continue to lead even after declared-candidates have participated in two debates and live campaigning events bodes poorly for Democrats. Though likely not a popular idea with all Democrats, if either jumped into the race, they would likely win the nomination.
- Williamson and Gabbard Inconsistent – Both candidates performed extremely well during the first two debates (as per SMI improvements and on-line surveys) but have been unable to capitalize on their debate successes. Between debates they have not been able to maintain influence as their SMIs show declining trends. As stated in previous reports, their outlook would deteriorate if they were not able to sustain attractive SMIs post 2nd debate, which has been the case.
- Trump is SMI Leader – As highlighted in various previous reports, Trump’s SMI is superior to all current Democratic candidates, making him the likely victor in the 2020 general election. This trend has remained intact.
Overview of Main SMI-based Observations, New or Modified
New or modified social media based observations and forecasts:
- Bernie Sanders Strengthens – Sanders has improved his standings over the last few weeks and has surprisingly taken a marginal SMI lead over the Democratic candidates. We expect him to outperform in the coming debate and receive a boost in traditional metrics over the coming month.
- Elizabeth Warren to Weaken – Prior to the 2nd debate, we forecasted that Warren’s prospects would continue to improve, which has been confirmed by most measures such as polls and betting markets (where she has moved into 1st place). Her SMI, in contrast, shows a minor weakening trend over the last month. As SMI normally acts as a leading indicator, we expect her current status (based on traditional metrics) to be near a high-water mark, meaning we expect her poll and betting market numbers to top out and likely even decline over the next month.
- Beto O’Rourke Revives – O’Rourke’s SMI had collapsed after his initial announcement and remained low even during the debates. His candidacy looked over. The El Paso shootings (which occurred a few days after the 2nd debate) provided him with significant exposure and his SMI has surged. Voters have given him an unexpected additional chance. He will need to perform well in the 3rd debate to remain relevant and SMI states that the timing is right to do so.
- No Consistent Leader – SMI shows that there have been various Democratic front-runners, but as of yet, none has had sticking power. Harris, Buttigieg, Warren, O’Rourke, Yang, and Sanders have all enjoyed brief periods of SMI leadership (excluding candidate announcement periods). Though there is still plenty of time before voting, we had expected a consistent front-runner to emerge by around now. The fact that this has not occurred makes the Democratic nomination look increasingly difficult to predict.
- “The Squad” overshadows Top 4 Dem Candidates – The 4 ‘Squad’ members (Omar, Cortez, Tlaib, and Pressley) have had a superior aggregate SMI as compared to the top 4 polling Democratic candidates (Biden, Sanders, Harris, and Warren) for 96% of the time from the end of the 2nd debate to present. The implication is that the Democratic Party is getting pulled further left, which should continue to occur so long as this trend is in place.