Summary
What a difference 2 weeks can make when dealing with elections.
On March 22nd, ZettaCap published Pete Buttigieg as 2020 Dark Horse. At the time, such an idea was pretty unusual. Few had heard of this candidate and with such a wide field emerging, why focus on this single long shot also-ran?
According to our social media based metrics (specifically our First Impression Score), Buttigieg looked like one of the strongest candidates. These same metrics had successfully forecast victories for outlier candidates in other elections and were pointing to Buttigieg as being one of the surprise outperformers for 2020. We made an out-of-consensus call that Buttigieg would become the Dark Horse of the 2020 election.
Buttigieg’s current media surge seems to be confirming his Dark Horse potential. With an epxected April 14th formal announcement of his candidacy (previously he had announced an exploratory committee), it looks like Buttigieg’s emergence will continue. Our First Impression Score (FIS) and Social Media Influence (SMI) continue to point to Buttigieg as the Dark Horse of 2020.
Positive NewsFlow
The last 2 weeks have produced an extended surge for Buttigieg in our social media metrics. More recently, in the last few days, there has been a deluge of positive media coverage.
Vox — The Pete Buttigieg Boom
The Atlantic — The Buttigieg Boomlet Isn’t Like the Others
USA Today — Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s countercultural approach to Christianity is what America needs now
The Washington Post — Pete Buttigieg is Winning the Internet
National Review — Pete Buttigieg Is Having His Moment
CNN — Why Pete Buttigieg is having a 2020 moment
The New York Times — Why You Love Mayor Pete
The Hill – Buttigieg is the media’s ‘it’ candidate
Was the Buttigieg Boom ‘Created by the Media’?
Some observers on the right have speculated that the current wave of Buttigieg fever has been created by the media. Given some of the reports cited in this post, it does look perhaps too coincidental that so many positive articles could be written in such a brief window about, at least until very recently, a relative unknown.
However, we should note that ZettaCap detected Buttigieg’s surge prior to the media frenzy. In other words, Buttigieg’s boom was first found on social media (a mostly bottom-up source) and not mainstream media (a mostly top-down source).
The media can certainly help a candidate along by showing support and publishing positive articles. And, Buttigieg seems to be benefiting from such a trend right now. But is the media actually creating the story or chasing after an existing story?
As Buttigieg’s FIS outpaced those of other Democratic candidates prior to the obvious and widespread media support, it is difficult to believe the candidate was ‘created by the media’. Instead, it seems that people liked what they saw from Buttigieg from early exposure and those people reacted quickly on social media. Then, due to positive interest from the bottom-up (social media), media coverage began to surge.
Buttigieg announced his exploratory committee on January 23rd while media attention only really exploded in the past week.
In contrast, ZettaCap’s social media metrics surged from March 10th due to his appearance on CNN. (Other candidates have had similar exposure on CNN but none has created the same traction for the candidate on social media.) Since that date, he has performed extremely well using ZettaCap’s social media based metrics, which clearly highlighted his Dark Horse potential.
April 14th ‘Announcement’
Interestingly, Buttigieg announced an exploratory committee on January 23rd and not his actual candidacy. Most people would take this as his intention to run but technically he did not formally announce.
For instance, Kirsten Gillibrand announced an exploratory committee on January 15th and officially announced her candidacy only on March 17th. Elizabeth Warren formed her exploratory committee on December 31st while formally announcing on February 9th.
Buttigieg recently mentioned of an announcement coming on April 14th. It will most certainly be his formal announcement.
We are looking at a positive boost for Buttigieg for about the next month. During the run-up to his ‘announcement’, he will receive coverage. Then, the actual announcement will take place which will of course produce more fanfare. Then, there will likely be follow-up rallies and media interviews. Though speculative, this is what you would expect for the current ‘it’ candidate.
During this period, we should expect his social media metrics, such as Social Media Influence (SMI) to remain strong, placing him in the coveted top-tier of the large Democratic field.
‘Reluctant Savior’
This next month is extremely important for Buttigieg.
Our election scenario envisions a reluctant savior from the Establishment Democrat lane to announce in mid-May. Everyone has been focused on Joe Biden, but there is a strong case for Michelle Obama (or even another candidate).
The point is that Buttigieg looks to have space for about a month prior to the expected entrance of the Establishment’s main candidate. At that stage, the field will essentially be reset and we will have to revisit.
By surging prior to the reluctant savior, Buttigieg seems to have ensured his top-tier candidate status.