Forecast Update
Social Media Influence (SMI) clearly shows the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) will be the party to most outperform expectations in the May 2019 election.
Our forecast, which was first made last month, has only been slightly altered with the EFF marginally gaining. SMI currently places the EFF receiving approximately double their most recent IPSOS poll figures of 9-10%.
SMI forecasting the EFF (the far-left party which endorses such things as confiscation of white-owned farms and the nationalization of the mining and banking industries) at 18% of the national vote is an extremely aggressive forecast.
The strength we have detected is not a short-term phenomenon or a blip. The EFF has been consistently outperforming poll estimates since the beginning of the year and as we move closer to election-day, this trend has remained intact.
Assuming EFF significantly outperforms poll (consensus) forecasts, financial markets related to South Africa as well as sectors with a heavy South African presence (such as mining) should enter a period of volatility post-election.