Michelle Obama Reluctant Savior Scenario
The chances of Michelle Obama running for president have increased substantially since we openly speculated on the possibility here and here. At this point it looks like it is a flip of a coin. Considering that the betting market Predictit currently puts the probability of her running at 8% and that her name still does not appear in polls or even on potential candidate lists, this call is extremely out of consensus.
In ZettaCap’s February report on the 2020 US Presidential Election, we speculated that Michelle Obama was positioning herself as the reluctant savior for the Democratic Party. Some of the highlighted points:
There have been a number of important developments along these lines since the publication of this report in February that have increased the likelihood of Michelle running.
Moderate Democrats: Postponements and Declining to Run
First, multiple potential Democratic candidates have either announced they would not run or announced postponing their already delayed decisions. Such announcements greatly increase the likelihood of Michelle running.
Joe Biden, according to Jonathan Martin from the NYT, recently stated that he would make his decision in the next quarter, meaning in April, May, or June. This is a significant change from early in the year when he made it seem like his decision would come in January. Biden’s latest postponement is extremely significant as Michelle Obama’s book tour ends in May which would be an outstanding time to make her own announcement. The two appear to be in lockstep at this point, at least according to our timetable.
Terry McAuliffe seems to also be postponing his decision. Many believe that McAuliffe wants to see who else is running of the moderate wing of the Party, specifically if Biden will enter. He has declared that he will make his decision by end-March. It will be interesting to see if his deadline is kept or extended.
Beto O’Rourke has also recently postponed announcing his decision. He previously stated that he would announce by end-February, which has recently lapsed. He also mentioned that he and his wife “have made a decision about how we can best serve our country” and are “excited to share it with everyone soon.” O’Rourke is another potential candidate who could attract votes from the same ‘lane’ of moderate Democrats, but he would likely perform well with younger voters as well.
Eric Holder definitively announced on Monday that he will not run. Holder is extremely connected to the Obamas, and outside of Biden, would have been the most Obama-friendly candidate of those who have been considered potential candidates by the consensus.
Also on Monday, Hillary Clinton mentioned she was “not running”. Most have taken her statement as a final declaration. However, it could be interpreted a number of ways and this was not an official press conference or the like but a relatively minor TV interview. Regardless, the timing fits with a flurry of other activity so it is relevant.
Then, on Tuesday, Michael Bloomberg announced he would not run either.
All of these announcements of not running and postponements of decisions over such a short time period (and in an election cycle that has attracted many extremely early entrants but no close Obama or Clinton allies) could be coincidences. But are they?
The more likely scenario is that they received or perceived a cue that someone will run in this ‘lane’ and that person will have the best chances of any of them. The message being – back off, clear the runway, and get ready to help. This is of course speculative, but it would explain the actions of many moderate potential candidates over the last few weeks.
Short-Term Trends and a Potential Rupture
Second, we should look at short-term trends for the candidates to see if a potential Party rupture is possible, as this would be a strong trigger for a reluctant savior to jump in. Recent events which make such a rupture look more probable have increased the chances of Michelle running.
We have previously highlighted the idea that Michelle will likely run as a reluctant savior. In the case that someone like Kamala Harris performed well and was viewed as a candidate who could consolidate the different factions of the Party, perhaps having a reluctant savior would not be necessary. However, national polls show that Kamala seems to have stalled around 10%, putting her in a distant third place. She has also attempted to shift further left by supporting the Green New Deal, the legalization of marijuana, and Medicare-for-All. She now risks losing some of the middle ground by pushing too hard left.
Kamala still looks strong, just not as strong as many had hoped.
In contrast, Bernie Sanders has surged upon his announcement of running. In recent polls, he is within striking distance, within just 2 percentage points, of Biden the current poll leader. In comparison to 2016, Bernie seems in a much better spot, especially in this early stage.
Likewise, betting or prediction markets concur with this general interpretation. Predictit had Kamala Harris as the front-runner for almost all of January and February with Bernie Sanders pulling ahead just in the last two weeks. With Joe Biden in second, Kamala has now dropped to third.
Interpretation
Events of the last few weeks have increased the probability of Michelle Obama running for president. It has become increasingly clear that Obama allies and moderate Democrats have yielded recently through their declarations of not running or of postponement of decisions. Also, it has become apparent that with Kamala stalling and Bernie surging that the possibility of a rupture has increased. These events indicate that a reluctant savior scenario has become more likely and acceptable (as it would be seen as ‘saving the Party’.)
Social Media Influence (SMI), our main forecasting tool for elections, continues to show solid strength for Michelle. It also points to a potential rupture if she does not run.
The pieces continue to fall into place.