The second round of the Brazilian Presidential Election is tomorrow. Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts Bolsonaro to defeat Haddad, 59.4% to 40.6% respectively.
SMI has been consistently positive on Bolsonaro since July 2017. It is the only known quantitative indicator to maintain Bolsonaro as the front-runner throughout an extremely turbulent campaign. As polls and especially betting (or prediction) markets pointed to other candidates, SMI kept Bolsonaro as the front-runner and expected victor.
Currently, prediction markets (based on www.predictit.org) puts the probability of Bolsonaro winning at 97%. Every major poll taken since the end of the first round of voting has Bolsonaro with a considerable lead, averaging in the past week 13.6 percentage points.
SMI places the expected Bolsonaro victory more or less in-line with Lula’s wins of 2002 and 2006 when he won 61.3% and 60.8% of the second round vote, respectively. Such a victory for Bolsonaro will provide him with a clear mandate.