(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018)
SMI and Brazil’s Election – early 2017 to mid-2017
In July 2017, SMI forecasted two candidates as standing out of the fairly large pool of potential candidates. The first was Bolsonaro who has gained considerably in polls since that time and is now considered a leading candidate by various measures. The second was Joao Doria, the former mayor of Sao Paulo and former host of the Brazilian version of The Apprentice.
At the time, it appeared that the first round of voting would produce Bolsonaro and Doria as the winners, forcing a second round of voting. Whereas Bolsonaro has aggressively worked during the past year to organize his presidential run, Doria appears to have acquiesced to his larger party’s internal politics and has decided to run for Governor of Sao Paulo instead of for president, leaving Alckmin clear for his second attempt at the presidency. SMI, however, clearly identified Doria as a superior candidate in comparison to Alckmin, both then and now.
Interestingly, at that time, Lula showed very little social media traction. In early 2017, it was actually rather shocking to see how SMI depicted Lula as being a mediocre candidate – and this was before indictments. At that time, most assumed he would be able to run again for president and that, given his strong poll numbers, would win. His SMI, however, showed a different story in that his message was not resonating or gaining attention. Lula simply did not look like a strong candidate according to SMI.
Additionally, SMI showed weakness for the other mainstream potential candidates who had previously run for president. Marina Silva, Gomes, and Alckmin all produced rather meager SMI during early 2017 even though they had significant name recognition and showed signs of running. According to SMI, from the very start of this election cycle, Brazilians have tended to focus on fresh faces (Bolsonaro and Doria) and shunned establishment candidates.