Japan Election LDP Pulls Further Ahead
Prime Minister Abe’s ruling LDP has improved upon an already strong Social Media Influence (SMI) position. It looks increasingly unlikely that either of the two main new national parties, Party of Hope and Constitutional Democratic Party, will be able to generate enough votes to block Abe from securing the improved mandate that he seeks.
Media Speculation
Over approximately the last two weeks, the media and political analysts highlighted the popular governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, and her new Party of Hope as Abe’s greatest threat. In fact, speculation was rife that she would be able to take down the LDP or at the very least inflict enough erosion to his position to significantly weaken his mandate. She and her new party talked about taking on the establishment, of implementing more rapid reforms, and increasing populist measures. This message being delivered by the ‘media-savvy’ and popular governor of Tokyo would, according to political analysts, surely gain momentum.
SMI Diverges from Crowd
As highlighted last week, SMI showed a surprisingly weak rating for Koike. This was seen as being extremely curious given the circumstances of forming the new party, announcing the party’s platform, and appearing in multiple news conferences. Just the initial impact should have given her a short-term boost. But, such a boost did not come and Abe dominated throughout.
At the time, we showed that SMI pointed to a stronger position for Abe than polls suggested whereas Koike appeared fairly weak. As SMI tends to lead polls, we inferred that the outlook for Koike was much less positive than the media had speculated.
New Polls and Coverage Agrees with SMI’s Initial Call
Things can change rapidly during election season. Just last week, the presumed consensus was that Koike could give Abe a good run, or at least pull his party’s seat count below its current level. However, five new polls published today suggest that Abe’s position is in fact strengthening. As we have seen in other countries, SMI tends to lead polls and it seems to have worked again in Japan.
Commentary has also shifted to be more cautious of Koike’s chances and more positive concerning Abe. Recent articles state:
Bloomberg: “Challenge from Tokyo Governor Koike’s upstart party fades.”
Reuters: “But his main challenger, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s fledgling conservative Party of Hope, appeared to be struggling, despite calls for popular policies such as an exit from nuclear power and a sales tax hike freeze.”
Economic Times: “Support for Koike’s newly founded Party of Hope … appears to be deflating.”