French Election Macron, the next French President
On December 12, 2016, we forecasted that Emmanuel Macron would be elected the next French President. Since that time, his position as measured by Social Media Influence (SMI) has improved and the forecast remains intact. The single largest change with this update is that Le Pen has moved from third to second place in SMI ratings.
The following chart compares the most recent poll figures and the SMI for each of the main candidates.
Chart 1: 2017 French Presidential Election Poll Results versus Social Media Influence (SMI) Ratings for the main candidates
Source: ZettaCap and OpinionWay
Macron is by far the largest standout in terms of SMI. His poll figures for the first round of voting put him in second place behind Le Pen, while his SMI places him in a commanding lead. His SMI implies very strong underlying strength for his candidacy.
This dynamic of a single candidate’s SMI well outperforming poll results has been seen in other campaigns. For instance, in the US Presidential Election of 2016, very large differences between the SMI and polls signaled which candidates would gain traction in the election and which would fade. Polls and trading markets tended to follow the SMI ratings in the US election and we expect a similar dynamic to repeat in other developed countries.
In the case of France, Macron is the only candidate whose SMI far exceeds his current poll figures. The implication is that he will continue to positively surprise political analysts as his potential underlying support is much larger than polls show. The two biggest losers, according to SMI analysis, are Le Pen and Fillon as their SMI ratings are rather meager in comparison to poll figures, which implies little political traction going forward for them.
As the election gets closer to the first round of voting in April, the SMI should further weed out the top two contenders. Le Pen’s second place position in SMI is rather vulnerable at present and can still be challenged by Fillon, Hamon and/or Melechon.
One major drawback concerning Le Pen is that real world events should be helping her to a considerable degree. There have been riots involving immigrants in France this past week which some speculate will literally hand the election to Le Pen. Her party’s position against open boarders would naturally attract support in the short-term from news headlines portraying immigrants as rioters.
In reality, her SMI only received a slight positive bump in the last week which was more or less equivalent to Macron’s SMI increase. The two losers this past week were Fillon and Hamon, both from France’s most traditional and ‘establishment’ parties. It seems like negative news concerning immigrants hurt the ‘establishment’ parties to a greater extent than they simply help Le Pen, as Macron received a similar boost. In other words, the populace appears to recognize that immigration is an important issue but seem to blame the ‘establishment’ more than they are running to Le Pen when this issue turns negative. This is a very significant point that the SMI has highlighted over this past week as it implies further negative news concerning immigrants will not, as some expect, result in a Le Pen presidency.