Dutch Elections SMI points to D66 Surge
The Netherlands will hold its general election on March 15, 2017, a month from today. As it occurs prior to the French (April/May) and German (September) elections, it will help to provide an indication of the direction that Europe will take going forward. Especially, in the relatively volatile global political environment, the Dutch election will be of greater importance than in previous years.
Commentators (which include political analysts, pundits, and journalists) have focused on two parties – VVD and PVV – as the real contenders to win the most votes and thereby form the next coalition government. The VVD, a ‘conservative liberal’ party which espouses conservative social policies and more liberal economic ones, is the current leading party in the Netherlands having obtained the most seats in parliament in the last election and having its party leader as the country’s prime minister. The PVV, the populist party, has the third most seats in parliament and is led by the well-known Geert Wilders who often makes the international news due to his anti-immigration policies.
Polls also show the election to be dominated by the VVD and PVV. These two parties have traded the lead in the polls since around 2013. In other words, polls have consistently shown these two parties as being the most likely to win the most seats in the next general election.
In contrast, the SMI shows the VVD to be in trouble. Its performance on social media is actually fairly weak considering its current position and implies it will underperform current polls. In the last election, it obtained 41 seats in parliament with polls pointing to it getting somewhere around 22 – 25. The SMI forecasts it will only get 15 seats. This would turn the ruling party to frankly a mediocre one in the next government.
The PVV’s SMI implies it will perform slightly better than current polls, which would make it one of the leading parties after the upcoming election. The problem with the PVV is that its SMI has been declining rapidly since December. The expectations at that time were that it would be able to form a coalition government with one smaller party. However, as its SMI has fallen, we now expect its election performance to more or less coincide with polls figures. This being the case, it would need to partner with numerous parties or at least one of the larger ones to be included in a coalition government. As the PVV is controversial, parties will not readily partner with it unless it wins a significant portion of the seats, which does not appear to be the case at present. In short, with its SMI falling dramatically, the PVV does not appear to be a real threat to lead the next government.
So, if the current coalition leader (VVD) is underperforming in terms of SMI and the well covered populist party (PVV) is collapsing in terms of SMI, then which party is outperforming?
D66, a relatively lesser known party, has gained significant traction on social media and its SMI is now in the lead.
In terms of current seats, D66 is in sixth place. In terms of polls, D66 is in fifth place. In terms of SMI, it is in first place.
This means that we expect D66 to pop in the polls over the next month and well outperform on election-day. The SMI can still bounce around, especially in the last month before voting. However, D66 has been posting relatively strong SMI for quite some time so this trend looks to remain intact. The real question appears to be if PVV or the populist party will continue to experience a SMI index decline. If this trend does not reverse, it looks like D66 will become the party with the most seats in parliament, allowing it to take the lead in forming the next government.
One interesting point worth highlighting is that the leader of D66, Alexander Pechtold, is well known for not getting along with the populist leader Geert Wilders. Much of the current SMI support going towards D66 could be described as a protest against the PVV and Wilders. Regardless, if D66 can create an image of the anti-populist party it will capitalize on much of the angst in Europe regarding a populist surge. As D66 is generally seen as a centrist party, it should be able to gain support from various demographics.
More on D66 and how its expected electoral success will help to shape Europe going forward in another post.