SMI Update French Election: Macron Surges, Fillon Declines

2017 French Presidential Election         SMI continues to point to underdog Macron

In early December, or about 6 weeks ago, we predicted using the Social Media Influence (SMI) Index that Emmanuel Macron, then a distant third place in the polls and betting markets, would surge and end up winning the French Presidential Election taking place in April/May 2017.  Since that forecast was made Macron has indeed surged and the SMI continues to point to his eventual election victory.  This update highlights the importance of SMI analysis for forecasting and its to-date unusually strong trackrecord.

By comparing betting market probabilities at the time of the previous forecast and today, we can see the rather abrupt movement of Macron’s chances.  This surge for Macron and corresponding decline for other candidates, but especially the then leading candidate Fillon, confirms the previous SMI forecast.

Table 1:  Change in Probability of Winning 2017 French Presidential Election, from 12/12/16 to 1/26/17

Source:  PredictWise

Interestingly, the major down moves came from France’s historically strongest parties, Republican and Socialist.  The only major upward move came from Macron, as was forecast in December by the SMI.

Chart 1:    Change in Probability of Winning 2017 French Presidential Election, from 12/12/16 to 1/26/17

Source: PredictWise

The previous chart clearly depicts the huge bump received by Macron in just 6 weeks.  The probability of him winning the election jumped an incredible 18 points.  This type of movement would be shocking for most observers given how accurate betting markets and polls are presumed to be.

As was the case during the US Presidential election campaign, the SMI made seemingly unbelievable forecasts which were then proven correct as the polls and betting markets followed the SMI and not the other way around.  In the case of the French Presidential election, the SMI forecasted Macron, a mostly unknown politician running as the standard-bearer for a new and unproven party, would surge in popularity based purely on social media.  Clearly, the SMI has been shown to work well in French politics as well as in US politics.

It should also be noted that the general newsflow has been positive for Le Pen.  Her party’s policies against an open border have received plenty of news coverage due to high profile terrorist attacks on European soil, including the December 19, 2016 Berlin truck attack.  Le Pen also made international news thanks to an unannounced visit to Trump Tower in New York in January 2017.  Even with such attention, Le Pen’s position in the betting markets essentially remained flat during the sample period.  This should be interpreted as very negative in that such news should have boosted her standing if in fact her underlying support was apparent.

As it stands today, the SMI continues to forecast an election victory for Macron.  This is unchanged from the initial December forecast.

Perhaps most surprising is the massive decline of Fillon’s SMI.  In December, his SMI was a strong second place just behind Macron.  It seemed at the time that the first round of voting would be won by Macron and Fillon.  However, the way it stands now, Fillon has sunk to levels well below Macron and Le Pen.  Fillon is currently battling Valls (Socialist Party) and Melenchon (Left Party) for a somewhat distant third place.

In short, the December SMI forecasted:

• A ‘surge’ for Macron and a ‘dramatic fall’ for Fillon, these forecasts were clearly confirmed within 6 weeks.

Looking forward over the next few months, the SMI forecasts:

• Continued strength for Macron, perhaps taking the betting market and poll lead,
• Continued decline for Fillon, perhaps declining to second or third place in betting markets and polls,
• Le Pen’s prospects more or less stabilizing,
• Macron increasingly seen as a serious contender and perhaps even the front runner.