Summary
Marianne Williamson was, by far, the standout of the night. This conclusion is confirmed by ZettaCap’s Social Media Influence (SMI) and Google Search Trends. Additionally, she came in second according to two on-line surveys.
Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg (the three presumed strongest candidates going into the debate) followed Williamson when looking at the average data from the different datasets.
Delaney, who supported more moderate positions, came in a solid 5th.
The Data
There are three different types of data in Table 1 (below).
SMI uses social media data and calculates a proprietary influence rating. The next two entries, Heavy and Washington Examiner, are on-line surveys asking who won the debate. We specifically chose a left-leaning (Heavy) and right-leaning (Washington Examiner) survey sources to see if there was any difference. The last two refer to Google Search popularity during the debate and during a peak period from the next day to see how trends might have shifted post-debate when people search to find out more about a candidate.
It is important to state that SMI’s rankings are completely independent of the other forms of analysis — and that SMI provides similar yet unique insights.
Additionally, we should highlight that SMI made early and correct forecasts for the 2016 US Election, 2017 French Election, and 2018 Brazil Election – all considered extremely difficult elections to correctly forecast.
Comparative Rankings
The following table lays out the ranked finish of each of the ten candidates according to a variety of methods.
Table 1: Ranking by Candidate’s Debate Performance by a Variety of Methods
|
SMI |
Heavy (Survey) | Washington Examiner (Survey) | Google Search, during debate | Google Search, next day |
Avg. |
|
| Williamson |
1 |
2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
1.4 |
| Buttigieg |
2 |
4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
3.8 |
| Warren |
3 |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
3.0 |
| Sanders |
4 |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
2.0 |
| Delaney |
5 |
5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
4.8 |
| Bullock |
6 |
7 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
7.2 |
| Klobuchar |
7 |
8 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
8.6 |
| O’Rourke |
8 |
6 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
6.8 |
| Ryan |
9 |
9 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
7.8 |
| Hickenlooper |
10 |
10 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
9.6 |
Source: ZettaCap, Heavy, Washington Examiner, Google Trends
For the most part, the various datasets confirm the candidate’s rankings. Williamson clearly produced a standout performance.
Arguably, Sanders could be seen as the winner of the mainstream candidates. We could, however, discount his on-line survey performance as his core followers tend to push up this metric for him. SMI saw Buttigieg and Warren outperforming Sanders.
Williamson to be Taken Seriously?
Debates seem to help Williamson. In the 1st debate, according to the same analysis, she out-performed coming in 4th place in SMI and 1st in Google Searches during the debate. For an unknown, this was an impressive performance. However, few took her seriously post-debate.
Now, in the 2nd debate, she again out-performed expectations coming in 1st in both SMI and Google Searches during the debate. There is definitely curiosity and interest on the part of the electorate for Williamson. But, when will traditional political pundits see this as translating to political strength?
According to SMI, her position was one of the few that improved to any significant degree between the 1st and 2nd debates. She had some positive momentum going into the 2nd debate and presumably capitalized on it. It seems that she has a window over the next 6 weeks before the 3rd debate to get her message out to the electorate.
Significant Decline of Overall Interest
One potentially negative trend that appears to be unveiling itself is a decline in general interest.
ZettaCap’s social media activity metric measuring interest in the participating Democratic candidates declined by 31% from debate 1/1 (1st debate, 1st night) to debate 2/1. Confirming this trend is a decline in the number of votes cast in the post-debate on-line heavy.com survey by 23% from debate 1/1 to debate 2/1.
There could be an impact of not having the presumed front-runners of Biden and Harris in the 1st night. We will have to see how the 2nd night plays out before coming to any firm conclusions.
This trend if confirmed, however, would be extremely negative for Democrat’s prospects as it implies decreasing voter enthusiasm which is generally a good indicator of voter turnout. In other words, a sharp decline in voter interest metrics this early in the campaign would indicate future issues in the general election versus Republicans.