Analyzing Influencer Groups using SMI
As described in other posts, one advantage of using SMI to analyze such things as political trends is that we can easily create groupings around certain topics or themes. We used such a technique to determine that a successful impeachment was not likely and that there is actually a good chance the attempt at impeachment could become a net negative for Democrats.
Here are the SMI group ratings of the most significant groups influencing the political environment over the short-term. We have excluded current and former POTUS and FLOTUS in the following exhibit. Red signifies groups with a pro-Trump bias, purple is for conservatives with an anti-Trump bias, and blue is for Democrats.
Exhibit 1: Social Media Influence (SMI) of the US Political Landscape as of November 15, 2019
Source: ZettaCap
In terms of impeachment proceedings, we analyzed the above data here. The basic conclusion is simply that SMI trends do not support high levels of implied support for the impeachment. In fact, SMIs of Trump and his allies have mostly remained strong or strengthened whereas those of anti-Trump groups have not shown the type of positive momentum we would associate with such a monumental event such as dislodging a sitting president.
Beyond the short-term interpretation of the data as it relates to impeachment, we can still glean substantial insights:
- Surprising Strength of Trump’s Political Children
- “The Squad” holds more Influence than Top-Tier Democratic Presidential Candidates
- Republican “Outreach” (for lack of a better term) shows impressive Strength
- Pro-Trump Mainstream Media fully dominates Anti-Trump Media
- Pro-Trump Commentators fully dominate Anti-Trump
- Never-Trump Republican Politicians hold little Influence
- Neutral and Anti-Trump Republicans have been overshadowed
- Anti-Trump Comedians / Commentators hold exceptional Influence overshadowing Anti-Trump Media
Surprising Strength of Trump’s Political Children
One of the most significant insights into this grouping method was the strength of both Ivanka Trump and Donald Trump, Jr.. As a group, they show unusually high levels of SMI which not only imply how influential they have become but also that they could be future leaders in the Republican Party. Their collective rating also infers that any attempt by Republicans to somehow sideline them would not work. They are in fact two on a very short list who could defeat, based on SMI, the principal Democratic Presidential candidates.
“The Squad” holds more Influence than Top-Tier Democratic Presidential Candidates
Intuitively, most could infer the impressive surge that The Squad, a four person, previously unknown group of newly elected Democrat Congresswomen. SMI shows just how impressive this surge has been. Though volatile throughout 2019, it has remained high and currently edges out the Top-Tier Democratic Presidential candidates. Considering where we are in the campaign, the fact that any Democratic politician would hold a higher SMI would be impressive — but it makes it even more so considering their newness as well as their far-left message. The Squad’s strong SMI shows how far left the Democratic Party is moving.
“Outreach” (for lack of a better term) shows impressive Strength
This group was difficult to name. We ended up with Outreach as these individuals push a pro-Trump conservative message into demographic groups that have not normally been strong points for Republicans. Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA, who is 26 years old, mostly focuses on younger voters such as college-aged youth. Candace Owens, who is 30 years old and African American, launched ‘Blexit’ or black exit from the Democratic Party. This ‘Outreach’ group contains individuals attempting to increase interest for Trump or conservative priorities within traditionally Democratic strongholds. The fact that this group’s SMI is so high is astonishing and implies they are making considerable impact, which should be a major red flag for Democrats.
Pro-Trump Mainstream Media fully dominates Anti-Trump Media
The anti-Trump mainstream media appears almost inert at this point given its low SMI. In contrast, the pro-Trump mainstream media possesses an impressively strong SMI, even when compared to many Republican politicians. Like them or hate them, many Fox news personalities deserve respect due to their strong on-line influence. According to our analysis, these mainstream (mostly Fox) personalities hold greater sway than even those seen as conservative leaders. In other words, a social media message by Hannity would have much greater influence than someone like Cruz. Interestingly for Democrats, the opposite is true. It looks like at least for the time being, the Democrats appear to have lost their perceived media advantage.
Pro-Trump Commentators fully dominate Anti-Trump
In terms of Independent Commentators (those political, news, or societal commentators who are not directly and not mainly affiliated with a major outlet but who might appear on a major network as a commentator or who might have a second-tier program), pro-Trump bias commentators also possess a superior SMI. Such commentators as Dinesh D’Souza, Sebastian Gorka, Sara Carter, Dan Bongino, Mark Levin, and others create a significant amount of influence on social media. In comparison, anti-Trump Commentators produce lower levels of SMI. This comparison is of interest as these groups tend to have opinions and commentary further to the extreme of the center of their respective parties — meaning pro-Trump tend to be further to the right and anti-Trump tend to be further to the left than their political parties. The fact that pro-Trump commentators dominate imply the current strength.
Never-Trump Republican Politicians hold little Influence
Often when a Never-Trump Republican comments on Trump or on politics, it will make the news with the implication that such commentary holds significant influence. According to SMI, however, this group holds little actual influence. Such individuals as Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, John Kasich, Jeff Flake, Bob Corker, and others can command media attention and obtain headlines but according to SMI, those messages fall flat on social media. Their low levels of SMI is contradictory to the apparent consensus viewpoint in the sense that many pundits as well as betting markets believe that many of those in this group would become major players in the case of a Trump impeachment — SMI shows that this is really not a possibility.
Survival-Focused and Never Trump Republicans have been pushed aside
Most pundits believed that Trump would be quickly sidelined after announcing his intention to run for the Republican nomination by more traditional and/or more seasoned Republicans. Many of those who were pointed to as being able to knock him out during the nomination or to replace him in the case he were impeached after inauguration are included in the Never-Trump or Survival-Focused groups. The Survival-Focused Republicans are those who appear to be biding their time until Trump leaves or is forced out. They do their best to remain within power circles without fully committing to Trump. They seemingly believe that this could leave the door open to consolidating power if the pendulum swings against Trump. This group includes Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, and others. It is interesting to see how little SMI the Survival-Focused and Never Trump Republicans possess. Such levels lead us to believe whenever the next stage of Republicanism begins post-Trump, that these groups will not be the leaders.