Democratic Dark Horse Candidate
The most likely dark horse candidate is Pete Buttigieg (‘Mayor Pete’, or just the guy with the hard to pronounce last name). His Social Media First Impression Score (FIS) has exploded, which we take as an early indicator of improving standing among the diverse field. Some signals are mixed, however, and we still do not have complete data, given that some (including Joe Biden who is the presumed front-runner by the consensus) have yet to announce. Regardless, the power of Buttigieg’s recent FSI breakout means he is one to watch going forward and given his low consensus expectations he looks like the Democrat’s dark horse candidate for 2020.
Dark Horses
A dark horse is a candidate who is relatively obscure before the race but ends up gaining significant traction once the electorate has exposure to him/her and wins/comes close to winning the election against extremely low early expectations.
These candidates are not that common and most elections do not produce one. This is different from underdog candidates who some believe have a chance of unseating the assumed front-runner. Dark horses literally come out of nowhere – and therefore are extremely hard to predict.
Though the Democratic field is wide, there are not many potential dark horses. Many of the candidates who have announced have had significant national exposure prior to 2019, were heavily mentioned as the potential 2020 nominee prior to 2019, and/or have been groomed by the party to run. With this definition, you can knockout almost all of the candidates.
Pete Buttigieg as Dark Horse
But Buttigieg is different. He is the mayor of South Bend, a small college town. If elected, he would be the only president ever to transition directly from mayor to president. The fact that he is mayor of a relatively small town does not help boost his profile. He is also only 37, which would make him the youngest president ever elected. Such a profile mostly kept him off radar screens, perhaps assuming he needed more time and higher office to make a solid run. On top of these already significant factors is the fact that Buttigieg is the first openly homosexual candidate to run for president, which for many would lower the odds of him winning the presidency.
Unlike other first-time presidential candidates, like Beto O’Rourke or Kamala Harris, his announcement did not garner mainstream national media attention. In fact when mentioned, it looked like a footnote. There was little mainstream speculation around his run and less fanfare when he finally announced.
Although media coverage has been limited, his social media has produced a seismic shift. Of all the candidates, his Social Media First Impression Score (FIS) has responded the most from early campaigning.
Though it is still early to make a strong forecast as some candidates have yet to even announce and there are some mixed signals (which will be explained later), Pete Buttigieg seems to be the closest thing Democrats have to a dark horse candidate for 2020. Assuming current trends continue, expect Buttigieg to continuously surprise during the campaign and end up being one of the (unexpected) leaders of the race.
Current Standings / Off the Radar
Mayor Pete is not seen by the consensus as a high probability candidate. The most recent national CNN poll (March 19) has him at 1% or tied for a very distant 8th place. The Morning Consult poll from the same date produced the same results for Buttigieg, 1% and tied for 8th place. Predictit, the betting or prediction market site, puts him in 7th place.
In short, polls show him completely off the radar. Betting markets are slightly more aware of him, but still show him as a long shot.
First Impression Score (FIS) / How Social Media Initially Reacts
Our preferred metric for election forecasting is our Social Media Influence (SMI) for longer-term analysis. However, to determine the potential of a candidate at the beginning of a campaign it is often better to look at Social Media First Impression Score (FIS). This indicator uses social media data to measure the initial impact of an event, such as a campaign announcement.
FIS is a measure that can be easily and intuitively understood. The basic idea is that immediate reactions to certain events (like a new product announcement or a politician’s campaign announcement) are indicative of their later success. Significant early traction on social media indicates later success whereas meager early traction indicates a potential flop. This concept is fairly well tested and has been applied to how initial movie trailer buzz can forecast the movie’s box office.
Applying a similar concept to political campaigns has offered some impressive yet mixed results. For instance, Donald Trump’s campaign announcement resulted in a tremendous FIS which clearly indicated the potential of his candidacy. Also during the 2016 election cycle, Bernie Sanders did not produce such an impressive FIS, but instead gained traction over time resulting in an impressive SMI. The point is that a large initial splash in terms of FIS can be indicative but it is not necessarily a make or break for a candidate.
The combination of a relatively unknown candidate producing an impressive FIS is a signal that the candidate could be a dark horse or a sleeper candidate – one that will surprise.
Buttigieg’s First Impression Score (FIS)
Here is where some interpretation of data should be taken into account. At what point should you measure the FIS? Do you begin upon the official announcement or when the electorate gets its first good look or exposure to the candidate?
In almost all cases, you should use the official announcement. Under normal circumstances, candidates create suspense around the announcement and upon it the media provide ample coverage of the candidate that allows for a reasonable measurement of the first impression as a candidate.
In the case of a dark horse, it is not so clear. For instance, for Buttigieg, his announcement was relatively buried in the news cycle. As mentioned already, he was just not on the radar screen and so when he announced it was generally not covered – using this period to measure his FIS results in a meager score.
However, weeks later, he was granted a CNN Town Hall event and his score skyrocketed. Arguably, this was the first time that the broad electorate had real access to his message.
In order to show how significant of an impact the period of measure is, both periods are included in the following chart – one FIS starting from his announcement and the other from his CNN Town Hall.
Exhibit 1: Social Media First Impression Score (FIS) for announced 2020 candidates
Source: ZettaCap, note Joe Biden does not appear as he has yet to officially announce
Pete Buttigieg appears twice in the chart. Depending on how you measure the FIS, he comes in first or last place. If you assume that the best way to measure his FIS is to start at his announcement, he looks like he will not perform well at all during the campaign. If however you assume that the first exposure to the broad electorate was not during his announcement but instead during the CNN Town Hall, then he looks like the Democrat’s dark horse candidate.
Now, a counter argument for using the CNN Town Hall event to measure FIS is that it provides an unfair advantage for Buttitieg. However, other candidates such as Kamala Harris, Howard Schultz, Amy Klobuchar, and John Hickenlooper have all had CNN Town Halls and their social media metrics did not react to such a great extent or produce as pronounced of a follow-on effect.
We can assume that these other candidates were already reasonably well known prior to their respective Town Halls. Buttigieg, on the other hand, was not.
It is a judgement call. We assume that the better way to compare Buttigieg is to use the CNN Town Hall timing as the beginning of his FIS period. As such, Buttigieg looks to be the dark horse candidate, the one who will outperform low early expectations and one who will against apparent consensus odds be one of the major Democratic candidates of 2020.
Other Mixed Data
Normally, we would want to see confirmation signals given from a variety of metrics. Not just in this case, but any situation. It simply provides more confidence. Especially in the case where you are making an out-of-consensus call, it helps.
Buttigieg performs extremely well on social media, at least using our metrics. However, other alternative data does not confirm these trends, at least not to the same degree. For instance, news flow, search, and pageview metrics associated with Buttigieg do not reflect a similar breakout.
Our understanding from forecasting a variety of elections and events is that social media tends to be a more sensitive indicator, especially when considering a core enthusiastic audience. So, it is possible for such a breakout to occur and only register on social media. The other metrics should follow over time.
However, this is not a clean forecast. When Trump announced for instance, his alternative data metrics across the board went haywire. Buttigieg’s situation is not the same. He is starting from a much lower base, with much less name recognition, and a much smaller on-line presence. Whereas Trump’s metrics pushed higher more or less in unison, it looks like Buttigieg is gaining by far the most traction on social media.
Mixed data for Buttigieg, as an assumed dark horse candidate, is acceptable. But this will keep him locked in the dark horse candidate lane. If we see similar breakouts in other metrics, Buttigieg could have a solid shot at the nomination, but that is still far from clear.
Summary
Currently, our understanding:
- Buttigieg comes into the race as a relative unknown, with a profile that does not lend itself it being seen as a potential front-runner (mayor, age),
- His announcement garners little in the media or on social media,
- The electorate gets their first real exposure to this relative unknown via a CNN Town Hall and his FIS explodes to the greatest degree of any confirmed 2020 candidate,
- Social media genuinely liked what they saw from their first look,
- FIS breakout is not confirmed by other alternative metrics,
- Combination of consensus low expectations, his unusually strong FIS breakout, and non-confirmation from other metrics make Buttigieg look like the dark horse candidate.
Given these points, we should expect Mayor Pete to become a candidate who will gain traction the more people are exposed to him. This might result in fits and starts, but it looks like the direction will be towards the upper bracket of the 2020 candidates and away from the ‘also-ran’ position where he started his campaign. If current trends continue, he will likely become the hot candidate within the next few months, surprising most. This doesn’t necessarily mean he will become the front-runner, just that his name will disproportionately appear in the mainstream media and trend on social media with the capacity to overshadow some of the top candidates. And, for someone who recently polled at 1% nationally, such a turn will be tremendous.
Andrew Yang as another Dark Horse?
Lastly, we should highlight the potential for Andrew Yang to also become a dark horse candidate. His FIS is impressive given his (initial) low profile, low mainstream media attention, and non-political background. Social media shows that his message of a Universal Basic Income ($1,000/month) referred to as a ‘Freedom Dividend’ has been gaining traction. His most significant problem, like that of Buttigieg, is gaining access. It will be interesting to see the results of his first high-profile event, such as a Town Hall, where people can get more than a sound bite look at him. As of right now, Buttigieg clearly holds the dark horse mantel but Yang is one to watch.