The following post was previously published in a February 2019 ZettaCap report:
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Political observers seem to agree that the 2020 Democratic field will be wide and varied, and possibly the largest in history. Anyone with enough gumption from small town mayors to spiritual gurus qualifies with a declaration of interest. More serious candidates, such as former Obama administration officials, who provide a few hints are immediately put on the potential candidate list. Meanwhile, the media has aggressively speculated about more unlikely candidates as actors (The Rock), media personalities (Oprah), and business execs (Zuckerberg).
Michelle Obama, one of the most high-profile and popular public figures, has pushed away speculation with a few simple denials. By looking at her actions, and not her words, it seems obvious she is actively considering a run. A bestselling memoir, perfect publication timing, an unusually long book tour, extensive media interviews, a politician’s social media strategy and posting throwback photos make it look like she is following an orchestrated pre-campaign strategy and is ready to become the reluctant savior for the Democrats.
If a viable Democratic candidate emerges, however, a reluctant savior will not be necessary. Kamala Harris could become this viable candidate but there are still many risks involved with her candidacy. At present, according to a variety of social media based indicators, she is the front-runner but appears more like a mediocre-strong candidate than one who will become the favorite in the general election against Trump.
A surge by Bernie Sanders could also trigger a reluctant savior. Many mainstream Democrats see a hard left shift as destructive and as creating a rift lasting a generation. Additionally, Bernie is only superficially running as a Democrat and openly declares his registration as an independent as well as his socialist leanings. It is highly questionable if he would in fact govern as a Democrat.
A reluctant savior scenario does not appear as unlikely as the consensus believes. In fact, using current data, the most likely scenario will be one of broad fragmentation among mainstream Democratic candidates with a concentration of farther left-leaning support around Bernie. Kamala stumbling, Bernie surging, Trump remaining strong, perceived splitting of the Democratic Party, or even legal proceedings against former Obama Administration officials related to actions taken during the 2016 election could trigger the reluctant savior.
Michelle’s unusually long 180-day ‘book tour’ ends May 12th which is excellent timing. By May – June, it should be fairly clear if the party has produced a truly viable candidate and/or if the party is in any real trouble. Given her strong SMI and general popularity, jumping in late will not hinder her chances.