The announcement by Kamala Harris of her bid for the presidency on January 21, 2019 (yesterday) made considerable waves on social media. As expected her Social Media Influence (SMI) surged on the news.
In comparison to previous elections, Kamala’s SMI performed quite well – more or less in line with that of Hillary Clinton in 2015 on her announcement but slightly worse than that of Trump in the same election cycle. In summary, the short-term change of her SMI soon after her announcement fits that of a front-runner candidate.
Additionally, her SMI surged to a much greater extent than those of Kirstin Gillibrand and Julian Castro (two other prominent Democrats recently making similar announcements) directly after their respective candidacy declarations. The reaction of social media confirms Kamala as one of the leading candidates, as well as confirms the second tier status of the candidacies of Gillibrand and Castro.
The next significant test for Kamala’s SMI will be staying power. Many candidates receive a considerable boost due to their announcements – this falls within expectations.
Now, her SMI must remain strong. Weaker candidates tend to make a splash on the announcement but then see their SMIs sink significantly afterwards as they prove to have limited influence beyond their initial announcement.
In a scenario where neither Hillary Clinton nor Michelle Obama run, Kamala is the Democratic 2020 SMI leader at present. Beto O’Rourke and Elizabeth Warren follow close behind but have yet to confirm their candidacies. Over the coming months we should get a more complete view of the Democratic field as candidates make similar announcements.